Multivariate Analysis of Cross-sectional Age-specific Fertility Changes in Iran (Using Microdata Sample of the 2006 and 2011 National Censuses)

In this research, the fertility transition has been analyzed for 25 years involving multi-variables. The 25 years from 1987 to 2011 are divided into five periods, and the birth history of women has been rebuilt using the Luther method for women aged 15 to 64 years old in two percent raw data of censuses conducted in the years 2006 and 2011. To calculate the fertility rate based on age and other covariates, we have used Poisson Regression andSchoumaker's proposed method. Results show that employment and educational attainment had the most significant effect on reducing the age-specific fertility rates and, in turn, total fertility rate. Employed and highly educated women in 2002-2006 had total fertility rates equal to 1.6 and 1.5, and from 2007 through 2011, the total fertility rate reached 1.43 and 1.45, respectively. In 2006, among Employed and highly educated women, age groups of 25-30 years and 25-34 years had taken over as the peak fertility age groups, respectively. Based on the 2011 census, those peak rates tilted to the age group of 25-39 and 30-39 years, respectively. Migration had a marginal but significant effect on the dependent variable.