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cox regression

در نشریات گروه پزشکی
  • Sanjith Bharatharajan Nair, Dhananjay Yadav*
    Background

    In this study, data were collected from the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and analyzed by Cox regression model. In addition, hazard functions and survival outcomes in COVID-19 patients were also analyzed.

    Materials & Methods

    One million simulated data on hospitalized patients’ characteristics with positive SARS-CoV-2 infection were collected from the Humanitarian Data Exchange Source in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo from December 2020 to June 2021. Several statistical techniques were developed in this study for data analysis, including Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank test, Schoenfeld residual diagnostics, and likelihood ratio test.

    Findings

    This study finding showed that there was a 4.5% increase in the expected hazard per unit year increase in age. In addition, the risk of death was higher in males than in females, and patients with no signs of anorexia, ageusia, or anosmia, no history of diabetes or tuberculosis, normal pulse rates, and no hypoxemia had a greater survival rate than those with such health conditions.

    Conclusion

    This study finding revealed that covariates such as age, gender, anorexia, ageusia, anosmia, diabetes, and tuberculosis were expressively connected with higher mortality rates. In addition, hypoxemia and high pulse rate were associated with higher death rates; however, anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant agents were shown to reduce mortality rates, and multivitamin or vitamin C had a substantial impact on patient survival.

    Keywords: COVID-19, Mortality, Death Rate, Cox Regression, Kaplan-Meier Curve, Log-Rank Test, Schoenfeld Residuals, Survival Function
  • حکیمه سعادتی فر، پیمان رضایی طاهری، عزیز کسانی*
    زمینه و هدف

    بیماریهای قلبی عروقی شایع ترین علت مرگ در بیشتر کشورها و مهمترین علت از کار افتادگی می باشند. هدفاین مطالعه بررسی بقاء کوتاه مدت 28 روزه و تعیین برخی از فاکتورهای پیش بینی کننده بقاء کوتاه مدت در بیماران مبتلا بهسکته قلبی حاد بود.

    روش بررسی

    بررسی حاضر یک مطالعه همگروهی گذشته نگر بود که مبتنی بر جمعیت در 260 بیمار با سکته قلبی حاد دربخش قلب بیمارستان بزرگ دزفول به عنوان تنها مرکز آموزشی درمانی مرجع در شهرستان دزفول، در فاصله زمانی دو ساله99 - 1398 انجام گرفت. جهت بررسی میزان بقاء کوتاه مدت از روش جدول عمر و کاپلامایر استفاده شد. برای مقایسه توابع بقاء بیماران و پیش بینی فاکتورهای بقاء از آزمون Log rank ، Wilcoxon و رگرسیون چند متغیره Cox استفاده شد.

    یافته ها

    میانگین سنی بیماران 76 / 10 ± 91 / 57 سال بود و 193 نفر) 23 / 74 درصد(بیماران مرد بودند. میزان بقاء بیماران درپایان روز 28 ، 90 درصد بود. در رگرسیون Cox ، میزان خطر مرگ در زنان بالاتر از مردان بود) 47 / 3 - 08 / 1 : 95 % CI ،82 / 1HR= (. همچنین میزان خطر مرگ با وضعیت ابتلا به دیابت) 78 / 6 - 21 / 1 : 95 % CI ، 87 / 2HR= (، سابقه ACS (92 / 6 -32 / 1 % : 95CI ، 03 / 3HR= (،کسر جهشی زیر 30 (30 / 9 - 68 / 1 : 95 % CI ، 24 / 5HR= (، عدم دریافت داروی ترمبولیتیک) 57 / 3 -10 / 1 % : 95CI ، 84 / 1HR= (،آریتمی قلبی) 08 / 21 - 31 / 2 : 95 % CI ، 98 / 6HR= (و محل درگیری قدامی سکته قلبی) 79 / 2 -27 / 1 % : 95CI ، 67 / 1HR= (ارتباط معنی دار آماری داشتند.

    نتیجه گیری

    بقاء 28 روزه بیماران با سکته حاد قلبی حدود 90 درصد می باشد که بیشترین خطر مرگ ومیر در 8 روز اول پساز سکته حاد قلبی می باشد. فاکتورهای جنسیت، ابتلا به دیابت، سابقه ACS ،کسر جهشی، مصرف داروهای ترمبولیتیک، آریتمیقلبی و محل درگیری سکته قلبی با بقاء بیماران در ارتباط می باشند. لذا پیگیری به موقع و مناسب درمانی به خصوص درگروه های پرخطر نقش مهمی در افزایش بقاء بیماران دارد.

    کلید واژگان: سکته قلبی حاد، بقای کوتاه مدت، کاپلان مایر، جدول عمر، رگرسیون Cox
    Hakimeh Saadatifar, Payman Rezaie Taheri, Aziz Kassani *
    Background and Objectives

    Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death and the most important cause of disability in most countries. This study aimed to investigate short-term survival (28 days) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to determine some predictive factors of short-term survival in these patients.

    Subjects and Methods

    This study was a retrospective cohort study conducted on 260 patients with AMI in Ganjavian Hospital, a referral hospital in Dezful, Iran, during 2018-2019. Life table and Kaplan Meier analyses were used for the assessment of short-term survival rate. Log rank, Wilcoxon tests, and Cox multivariate regression were used to compare survival functions and determine the predictive factors of short-term survival.

    Results

    The mean age of the patients was 57.91 ± 10.76 years, and 193 (74.23%) were male. The survival rate was 90% on the 28th day. In Cox regression, the risk of death in women was higher than that in men (HR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.08-3.47). Also, the risk of death had a statistically significant association with diabetes status (HR=2.87,95% CI: 1.21-6.78), history of ACS (HR=3.03, CI95%: 1.32-6.92), EF<30 (HR=5.24, CI95%: 1.68-9.30), thrombolytic drugs (HR=1.84, CI95%: 1.10-3.57), arrhythmia (HR=6.98,95% CI: 2.31-21.08) and anterior MI (HR=1.67, CI95%: 1.27-2.79).

    Conclusion

    In the AMI patients, the 28-day survival rate was about 90%, which was the highest risk of death in the first 8 days after an AMI. The factors of sex, diabetes status, history of ACS, EF, thrombolytic drugs, arrhythmia, and location of AMI were associated with the survival of patients. Therefore, timely and appropriate follow-up of treatment, especially in high-risk groups, plays an important role in increasing survival in patient with AMI.

    Keywords: Acute Myocardial Infarction, Short-Term Survival, Kaplan-Meier, Life Table, Cox Regression
  • Faezeh Sadat Movahedi, Jamshid Charati *, Farhang Baba Mahmoudi, Fatemeh Abdollahi, Fatemeh Safari Hajikalai
    Background
    The problem issue of coronaviruses is one of the most serious problems in the world. The present study aimed to investigate and describe the clinical characteristics, risk factors of fatality rate, and length of hospital stay in patients with COVID-19 in Mazandaran province.
    Materials and Methods
    In this epidemiological study, data from COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in Mazandaran province from July 22 to August 21, 2020, were reported. Multivariate logistic regression methods and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to determine the risk factors of fatality.
    Results
    Out of the 6759 hospitalized patients, 3111(46.03%) patients had comorbidity; 19.77% of them had diabetes, 19.97% had hypertension, and 15.28% had heart failure. Cox regression model on COVID-19 patient data showed that risk factors for fatality including having age over 60 years (HR: 1.93; P< 0.001), intubation (HR: 4.22; P<0.001), SpO2≤ 93% (HR: 2.57; P=0.006), comorbidities of cancer (HR: 1.87; P=0.006), chronic blood diseases (HR: 1.83; P=0.049), heart failure (HR: 1.63; P<0.001), and chronic kidney disease (HR: 1.98; P<0.001).
    Conclusion
    Paying much attention to risk factors for fatality can help identify patients with a poor prognosis in the early stages. More assessments should also be performed to examine the underlying mechanisms of these risk factors. Highlighting death-related risk factors is crucial to increase preparedness through appropriate medical care and prevention regulations.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Cox regression, Outcome
  • Azar Hadadi, Ali Ajam, Mahnaz Montazeri, Samira Kafan, Abdolazim Veisizadeh, Morteza Ghoghaei, Sina Kazemian, Arezoo Ahmadi, Fazeleh Majidi, Maryam Moghadasi, Mehdi Kashani, Faezeh Ghasemi, Marzieh Pazoki

    Remdesivir, an antiviral medication, became an early promising therapeutic candidate for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to its ability to inhibit the virus in vitro. Current evidence about remdesivir treatment has been very controversial, so we aim to evaluate remdesivir to improve our knowledge about COVID-19 management and its long-term effects. In this retrospective cohort study using registered data derived from the Sina Hospital COVID-19 Registry with a 9-month follow-up, we enrolled patients receiving remdesivir and then matched a "control group" which did not receive remdesivir based on age, gender, and severity using propensity score matching. We used multivariant Cox regression to evaluate the remdesivir effect on patients' 9-month and in-hospital survival. We enrolled 227 patients, 116 in remdesivir and 111 in the control group. 213(93.8%) patients developed the severe disease, 88(38.8%) died during the 9-month follow-up, and 84(37.0%) died during hospitalization. In multivariate analysis, remdesivir did not affect the 9-month all-cause mortality and in-hospital mortality. Remdesivir was associated with increased in-hospital survival only in severe patients with diabetes (HR: 0.32; 95% CI: 0.14-0.75; P:0.008), and there was a trend for better 9-month survival in severe patients with diabetes (HR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.20-1.09; P:0.080). We concluded that remdesivir treatment did not increase the 9-month survival rate either in patients with COVID-19 or patients with severe disease and underlying diseases. On the other hand, we found that remdesivir treatment could increase in-hospital survival only in patients with severe COVID-19 and a history of diabetes mellitus.

    Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19), Cox regression, Propensity score matching, Remdesivir, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)
  • Şebnem Zorlutuna
    Background

    The study aimed to estimate the overall and disease-free survival rates of breast cancer patients and the factors affecting these rates.

    Methods

    In this retrospective study, data were obtained from 686 patients diagnosed with breast cancer in Sivas Cumhuriyet University Faculty of Medicine Research and Application Hospital Oncology Center between 1988 and 2014. Total population sampling method was used. The survival rates at certain periods were determined by creating a Life Table. By using the Kaplan-Meier Analysis, the mean survival times and rates were determined, and whether the variables had an impact on survival was examined. By applying Cox regression analysis, the effect of prognostic factors that are significant on the survival time of breast cancer patients was examined.

    Results

    Overall mean survival time was found as 208.4±11.8 months. According to Kaplan-Meier analysis, 1, 5, 10 and 20-years overall survival rates were 96.6 ± 0.07%, 82.3 ± 1.7%, 64.4 ± 3.4% and 49%± 7.4%, respectively. According to Cox regression analysis results, variables that influence overall survival time were found as disease stage, multicentricity status, ECOG (performance status), presence of diabetes, CA15-3 value, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio. Moreover, variables that had an impact on the disease-free survival time were found as tumor grade, multicentricity, and ECOG.

    Conclusion

    Many factors other than disease can prolong survival or accelerate death. Considering the findings of this study may be useful in planning the treatment of breast cancer patients have positive affect on overall survival rates.

    Keywords: Breast cancer, Survival analysis, Cox regression, Life table, Kaplan-Meier
  • Samaneh Mozaffarian, Korosh Etemad, Mohammad Aghaali, Soheila Khodakarim, Sahar Sotoodeh Ghorbani, Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari
    Background

    Coronary artery disease is the most common cause of death worldwide as well as in Iran. The present study was designed to predict short and long-term survival rates after the first episode of myocardial infarction (MI).

    Methods

    The current research is a retrospective cohort study. The data were collected from the Myocardial Infarction Registry of Iran in a 12-month period leading to March 20, 2014. The variables analyzed included smoking status, past medical history of chronic heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, signs and symptoms during an attack, post-MI complications during hospitalization, the occurrence of arrhythmias, the location of MI, and the place of residence. Survival rates and predictive factors were estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method, the log-rank test, and the Cox model.

    Results

    Totally, 21 181 patients with the first MI were studied. There were 15 328 men (72.4%), and the mean age of the study population was 62.10±13.42 years. During a 1-year period following MI, 2479 patients (11.7%) died. Overall, the survival rates at 28 days, 6 months, and 1 year were estimated to be 0.95 (95% CI: 0.95 to 0.96), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.90 to 0.91), and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.88 to 0.89). After the confounding factors were controlled, history of chronic heart disease (p<0.001), hypertension (p<0.001), and diabetes (p<0.001) had a significant relationship with an increased risk of death and history of hyperlipidemia (p<0.001) and inferior wall MI (p<0.001) had a significant relationship with a decreased risk of death.

    Conclusion

    The results of this study provide evidence for health policy-makers and physicians on the link between MI and its predictive factors.

    Keywords: Cox Regression, Myocardial infarction, Survival rate, Hypertension
  • Kourosh Sayehmiri

    Ovarian cancer is one of the most deadly women's gynecological malignancies in the world, and despite the low prevalence, it accounts for about 5% of all cancer deaths in women. Survival analysis is a regression relationship between a set of variables with a specific outcome, which is considered disease survival or recurrence in medical studies. The aim of this study is to determine the important factors in the first recurrence of patients with epithelial ovarian cancer with two statistics methods. In this study, we review medical records of patients with epithelial ovarian cancer who referred to the oncology and radiotherapy department of Imam Hossein Hospital of Tehran from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2018. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression, as well as the parametric Weibull method, were used to investigate the factors affecting patients' first recurrence. We perform all calculations with Stata Ver14. Of the 141 patients, 58 patients (41%) had a first recurrence during our follow-up. The mean time to the first recurrence was 24.88 months. Univariate Cox regression and univariate Weibull analysis showed that metastatic tumor and tumor stage had highly significant effects in the first recurrence of epithelial ovarian cancer. In multivariate Cox and multivariate Weibull analysis, the metastatic tumor had a significant effect in the first recurrence of epithelial ovarian cancer. One of the causes of ovarian cancer recurrence may be diagnosis happened at late stages. Therefore, screening programs are needed to reduce illness and death from ovarian cancer.

    Keywords: Ovarian cancer, Recurrence, Predictor, Cox regression, Weibull parametric method
  • Samaneh Sabouri, Habibollah Esmaily*, Soodabeh Shahidsales, Mahdi Emadi
    Background

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third prevalent cancer worldwide, and it includes 10% of all cancer mortality. In Iran, men and women have the third and the fourth incidence rate of CRC, respectively. Survival analysis methods deal with data that measure the time until an event occurs. Artificial neural networks (ANN) and Cox regression are methods for survival analysis.

    Objectives

    The current study was designated to determine related factors to CRC patients’ survival using ANN and Cox regression.

    Methods

    In this historical cohort, information of patients who were diagnosed with CRC in Omid Hospital of Mashhad was collected. A total of 157 subjects were investigated from 2006 to 2011 and were followed up until 2016. In ANN, data were divided into two groups of training and testing, and the best neural network architecture was determined based on the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Cox regression model was also fitted and the accuracy of these two models in survival prediction was compared by AUC.

    Results

    The mean and standard deviation of age was 56.4 ± 14.6 years. The three-, five- and seven-year survival rates of patients were 0.67, 0.62, and 0.58, respectively. Using test dataset, the area under curve was estimated 0.759 for the chosen model in ANN and 0.544 for Cox regression model.

    Conclusions

    In this study, ANN is an appropriate approach for predicting CRC patients’ survival which was superior to Cox regression. Thus, it is recommended for predicting and also determining the influence of risk factors on patients’ survival.

    Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Cox Regression, Survival Analysis, Colorectal Cancer
  • رسول نجفی، فاطمه امیری، قدرت الله روشنایی*، محمد عباسی
    مقدمه
    سرطان کولون یکی از شایع ترینسرطان های دستگاه گوارش است. این سرطان در بین سرطان ها سومین امار مرگ را دارد؛ هدف این مطالعه براورد بقا و تعیین عوامل موثربر بقایبیماران سرطان کولون است.
    مواد و روش ها
    در این تحقیق از اطلاعات 193 بیمار مبتلا به سرطان کولونمراجعه کننده به کلینیک امام خمینی همدان طی سال های1382 تا 1396 در قالب یک مطالعه کوهورت گذشته نگر استفاده شد. پیگیری تمام بیماران از طریق مراجعه دوره ای و تماس تلفنی تا سال 96 انجام شد. برای براورد بقای بیماران از روشکاپلان مایر استفاده شد،همچنین اثر عوامل پیش آگهی دهنده بر بقا توسط مدل رگرسیون کاکس به‎دست آمد. نرم افزارمورداستفاده برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده هاSTATA نسخه 11 و سطح معنی داری 05/0 در نظر گرفته شد.
    یافته ها
    میانگین سنی بیماران در زمان تشخیص 9/12±09/57 سال بود. احتمال بقای 1، 3 و 5 ساله کل بیماران به ترتیب 82/0، 61/0 و 48/0 بود. همچنین متغیر مرحله سرطان در مدل کاکس تعیین کنندهمدت زمان بقای بیماران بود.
    نتیجه گیری
    بر اساس مدل کاکس تنها مرحله سرطان بر زمان بقای بیماران مبتلا بهسرطان کولون این مطالعه تاثیرگذار بود.لذا تشخیص به موقع بیماری باعث پیشگیری از پیشرفت بیماری همچنین افزایش مدت زمان بقای افراد بیمار، به ویژه در سنین بالا می گردد.
    کلید واژگان: کاپلان مایر، رگرسیون کاکس، سرطان کولون
    Rasoul Najafi, Fatemeh Amiri, Ghodratoalleh Roshanaei*, Mohammad Abbasi
    Background and Aim
    Colon cancer is one of the most common cancers in the gastrointestinal tract. Colon cancer is the third death cause among cancers. The aim of this study was to estimate the survival rate and determine the effective factors in colon cancer patients.
    Materials and Methods
    In this study, 193 colon cancer patients referring to Hamadan Imam Khomeini Clinic during the years 2003-2017 in a retrospective cohort study were used. Follow up of all patients was done by referral and phone call up to 2017. The Kaplan -Meyer model was used to estimate the survival of patients. Also, the effect of prognostic factors on the survival of patients was obtained by Cox regression model. The software used to analyze the data was STATA 11 and the significance level was 0.05.
    Ethical Considerations
    This study with research ethics code IR.UMSHA.REC.1396.144 was approved in Research Ethics Committee of Hamadan University of medical sciences, Iran.
    Findings
    The mean age of the patients at diagnosis was 57.09 ± 12.9 years. The probability of survival of one-, three- and five-year was 0.82, 0.61 and 0.48 percent, respectively. Also, the cancer stage has a significant effect on survival time of the patients.
    Conclusion
    Based on the Cox model, only the stage of cancer was effective on the survival time of patients with colon cancer. Therefore, timely diagnosis also helps prevent disease progression, as well as increase the survival time of the patient, especially at an advanced age.
    Keywords: Colon cancer, Cox regression, Kaplan mayer
  • Yadollah Mehrabi, Maryam Mahdavi *, Davood Khalili, Ahmad Reza Baghestani, Farideh Bagherzadeh, Khiabani
    Introduction
     The world prevalence of type 2 diabetes and its related increment mortality rate which needs high controls cost has attracted high scientific attention. Early detection of individuals who face this disease more than the others can prevent getting sick or at least reduce the disease consequences on public health. Regarding the costs and limitations of diagnostic tests, a statistical model is presented that helps predict the time of diabetes incidence and determines its risk factors. Furthermore, this model determines the significant predictor variables on response and considers them as model equation parameters.
    Materials and Methods
    In this study, 803 pre-diabetic women in the age range of more than 20 years were selected from Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine the predictor variables on time of diabetes incidence. They were entered into the study in the phases 1 and 2 and were followed up to the phase 4. The predictor variables selection was performed using the Stepwise Model (SM) and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Then, the predictive discrimination was used to compare the results of both models. The Log-rank test was performed and the Kaplan-Meier Curve was plotted. The statistical analyses were performed using R software (version 3.1.3).
    Results
    The Backward Stepwise Model (BSM), the Forward Stepwise Model (FSM) and the BMA have used 9, 10 and 6 variables, respectively. Although the BMA selected predictor variables number is much lower than the SM, the prediction ability remains nearly constant.
    Conclusions
    The BMA has averaged on the supported models using dataset. This model has shown nearly constant accuracy despite the selection of lower predictor variables number in comparison to the SM.
    Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, stepwise methods, Tehran Lipid, Glucose Study, women pre-diabetic, Cox regression
  • سمانه صبوری، حبیب الله اسماعیلی*، سودابه شهید ثالث، مهدی عمادی
    مقدمه سرطان کولورکتال سومین سرطان شایع در سراسر دنیا می باشد و میزان مرگ و میر حاصل از آن در ایران رو به افزایش است. مطالعه حاضر با هدف تعیین عوامل مرتبط با بقای بیماران مبتلا به سرطان کولورکتال با استفاده از مدل کاکس انجام شده است. روش کار در این مطالعه که به صورت همگروهی تاریخی انجام گرفته است، 404 بیمار مبتلا به سرطان کولورکتال که طی سال های 1385 تا 1390 به بیمارستان امید مشهد مراجعه کردند، مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. ابتدا اطلاعات دموگرافیک و بالینی بیماران جمع آوری شد و سپس اطلاعات مربوط به بقای بیماران تا شهریور 1395 مورد پیگیری قرار گرفت. در مطالعه حاضر عوامل مرتبط با بقای بیماری با کمک رگرسیون کاکس مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است و از نرم افزارSPSS جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها استفاده شده است. سطح معنی داری در این مطالعه 0/05 بوده است. نتایج در پژوهش حاضر، 217 مرد (53/7%) و 187 زن (46/3%) مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند که میانگین ± انحراف معیار سن بیماران 7/14 ± 56/4 بوده است. بقای سه، پنج و هفت ساله بیماران به ترتیب 60، 50 و 48% محاسبه شده است. در این مطالعه میانه (فاصله اطمینان 95%) زمان طول عمر بیماران 5/48 (7/90 ،3/07) به دست آمده است. بر اساس مدل کاکس متغیرهای سطح شاخص توده بدنی (0/024=p)، نوع اولین درمان (0/019=p)، مرحله بیماری (0/0001>p) و عود بیماری (0/002=p) بر بقای بیماران موثر بودند. نتیجه گیری مطالعات بسیاری جهت تحلیل بقای بیماران مبتلا به سرطان کولورکتال انجام شده است که در بعضی موارد نتایج آن ها با یکدیگر متفاوت است. پیشنهاد می شود مطالعات بیشتر و با استفاده از سایر روش های آماری در این زمینه انجام گیرد تا با شناخت عوامل مرتبط با بقای بیماری بتوان بیماران در معرض خطر را شناسایی و منابع درمانی مناسبی را در اختیار آنان قرار داد.
    کلید واژگان: سرطان کولورکتال، تحلیل بقا، رگرسیون کاکس
    Samaneh Sabouri, Habibollah Esmaily *, Soudabeh Shahid Sales, Mehdi Emadi
    Introduction
    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third common cancer worldwide and its death rate is increasing in Iran. The present study is conducted with the purpose of determining related factors to CRC patients’ survival using Cox regression model.
    Materials and Methods
    In a historical cohort, we examined 404 subjects who were diagnosed with CRC and referred to Omid Hospital in Mashhad from 2006 through 2011. First demographic and clinical information of patients were gathered and then were followed until September 2016. In this paper, Cox regression was utilized to investigate related factors to CRC patients’ survival. For statistical analysis SPSS software was applied and significant level was 0.05.
    Results
    In this research, 217 men (53.7%) and 187 women (46.3%) were studied. The mean±sd of subjects’ age was 56.4±14.7 years and 3- year, 5-year and 7-year survival rates of patients were 0.60, 0.50 and 0.48 respectively. In this study, the median (95% confidence interval) of survival times was calculated 5.48 (3.07, 7.90). According to Cox regression model, BMI (p=0.024), first treatment (p=0.019), stage (p
    Keywords: Colorectal Cancer (CRC), Survival analysis, Cox regression
  • مرتضی محمدزاده، حسین فلاح زاده، نیما پهلوانی، ویدا پهلوانی*
    مقدمه
    سرطان پستان یکی از بیماری های شایع در میان زنان است که فاکتورهای مختلفی در ایجاد آن دخالت دارند هدف از انجام این مطالعه، تعیین عوامل تاثیر گذار بر روی بقایزنان مبتلا به سرطان پستان شهر یزد با استفاده از مدل کاکس به صورت بیزی ومعمولی می باشد.
    روش بررسی
    از میان مراجعه کنندگان به مرکز پرتو درمانی شهید رمضان زاده،538 نفر ازبیماران مبتلا به سرطان پستان را شناسایی و اطلاعات لازم را از سالهای 1384 تا 1391 ثبت نمودیم. تحلیل داده ها با نرم افزار R نسخه 3. 4. 0 انجام و سطح معناداری 05/0 در نظر گرفته شده است.
    یافته ها
    با استفاده از روش کاپلان مایر میزان بقای 5. 1و8 ساله زنان مبتلا به سرطان پستان به ترتیب 976/0 ، 823/0 و 737 /0آورد گردید میانگین سنی 16/11±03/48سال و میانگین زمان بقا 23/4±64/97 ماه میباشند. نتایج حاصل از آنالیزکاکس بیزی نشان داد که متغیرهای Ki67با (HR=3/260, PI: 95%= [1/630-6/372]) وER با (HR=2/592, PI: 95%= [2/023-3/354]) وstage (HR=5/620, PI: 95%= [4/079-7/73]) وlymph node با (HR=1/761, PI: 95%= [1/127-2/790]) و Surgery با (HR=1/631, PI: 95%= [1/102-2/422]) روی زمان بقا معنی دار بودند.
    نتیجه گیری
    به دلیل خطای بسیار کم (0001/0>) و کوتاه بودن فاصله اطمینان برای نسبت مخاطره،مدل کاکس بیزی مدل بهینه انتخاب شد و بر طبق آن متغیرهای مرحله بیماری و درگیری غدد لنفاوی و نوع عمل جراحی و مارکر های Ki67 و ER روی مخاطره مرگ تاثیر مثبت دارند. استفاده از روش بیزی در آنالیز بقا، به دلیل استفاده از اطلاعات پیشین به نتایج اعتبار بیشتری می بخشد.
    کلید واژگان: سرطان پستان، آنالیز بقا، مدل کاکس، روش بیزی
    Morteza Mohamadzadeh, Hossein Falahzadeh, Nima Pahlevani, Vida Pahlevani *
    Introduction
    Breast cancer is one of the common diseases among women with various factors involved in its development. The aim of this study was to determine the factors affecting the survival of women with breast cancer in Yazd using Cox's model as Bayesian and Classic.
    Method
    A population-based study of 538 breast cancer women registered in the clinical database of the Ramezanzade Radiotherapy Center from the April 2005 until March 2012. Comprehensive data on prognostic factors, comorbidity and treatment together with complete follow-up for survival were used to evaluate improvements in mortality. Data was analyzed by R 3.4.2. 0.05 was considered as the significance level. Findings: The mean age of breast cancer diagnosis was 48.03±11016 years. The 1, 5 and 8-year cumulative survivals for breast cancer patients were 0.976 ,0.898, 0.823 and 0.737 respectively. Bayesian Cox regression showed thatSurgery (HR=1.631 95%PI; 1.102-2.422) ki67 (HR = 3.260. 95%PI; 1.6308-6.372) stage (HR=5.620, 95%PI; 4.079-7.731) lymph node (HR= 1.765, 95%PI; 1.127-2.790) and ER(HR = 2. 600 95%PI; 2.023-3.354) were significantly related to survival. Discussio: Due to a very low error (<0/0001) and a shorter confidence interval for the risk ratio, the Cox Bayesian model of optimal model was selected and according to the variables of the stage of disease and lymph node involvement and the type of surgery and the markers Ki67 and ER on the risk Death has a positive impact. The use of the Bayesian method in survival analysis gives greater credibility to previous results.
    Keywords: Breast cancer, Survival Analysis, Cox regression, Bayesian Method
  • Mohammadreza Miri, Hakimeh Malaki Moghadam
    Objectives
    The time-interval between marriage and first childbirth (IMF) can affect fertility and pave the way for decreased fertility in future. This study aimed to determine the effective factors on the time of first childbirth in married women of Birjand, Iran.
    Materials And Methods
    This was a retrospective and prospective cohort study incorporating a total of 180 couples from Birjand who were married in 2011. The data were collected by a checklist and subsequently assessed using survival analysis in STATA13 software.
    Results
    From among the participants, 55.2% had a child and the rest were censored. The man’s age at the time of marriage, the interval between marriage contract to marriage ceremony, type of marriage, wife’s place of birth, application of modern methods of contraception, family income per month, and tendency to have a son were the determining factors affecting IMF.
    Conclusions
    More than half of the freshmen admitted to universities across the country are women who will seek employment after they are graduated. Considerations must be made so that they can have their desired number of children, suitable education, and employment.
    Keywords: First birth interval, Childbirth, Survival analysis, Kaplan–Meier survival estimate, Cox regression
  • Rezaali Mohamadpour, Nasser Behnampour, Fateme Abdollahi, Amenesadat Sheykholeslami *, Zahra Mehrbakhsh, Somaie Barzanuni
    Background
    Breast milk is the most suitable nutrition for the neonates. Breast milk and breastfeeding duration can contribute to decreased mortality rate, intestinal bleeding, and various neonatal diseases (e.g., digestive and respiratory diseases). It can also reduce the risk of diabetes and obesity in childhood and adulthood. Therefore, the estimation of breastfeeding duration and recognition of the effective factors in this regard can lead to designing and implementing appropriate programs, which can provide the foundations for the modification of breastfeeding behavior.
    Methods
    This survival study was conducted on 501 mothers with healthy and single birth neonates born within March 21, 2011-September 21, 2012 with active medical records in Aqqala city, Golestan province, Iran, in the second half of 2014. The data were collected from the information registered at the archives of health centers by in-person visiting. In addition, some of the information was collected through phone contacts. The duration of breastfeeding was estimated in month. Data analysis was carried out using the Cox regression in the STATA software, version 11.
    Results
    According to the results, the mean and median of breastfeeding were 20.44 and 22 months, respectively. According to the Cox regression, maternal ethnicity, living with family, birth spacing, type of milk consumed along with complementary nutrition, and type of neonatal nutrition during the hospital stay of the infant had a significant relationship with the early cessation of breastfeeding.
    Conclusion
    Based on the findings of the present study and the identified factors affecting the breastfeeding duration, it seems necessary to provide the essential trainings for the young mothers and pregnant women to avoid of reducing the duration of breastfeeding. These educations can be included in the programs of the Health centers of the universities and urban and rural medical clinics.
    Keywords: Cox regression, Duration of breastfeeding, Effective factors, Survival analysis
  • Abbas Rezaianzadeh, Hedayat Abbastabar, Abdolreza Rajaeefard, Haleh Hgaem, Maliheh Abdollahi
    Background And Aims
    The pandemic of AIDS is a global emergency and one of the biggest challenges in social and individual life. This study aimed to evaluate the survival time of HIV patients and its effective factors.
    Methods
    This historical cohort study was conducted on the individuals infected with HIV in Fars province, south of Iran, during 2006 to 2013. The study data were obtained from information documented in the patients’ records. For statistical analysis, at first, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used as univariate method and then, time varying Cox regression model was applied as multiple analyses.
    Results
    The findings of the present study implied that some variables could play the role of risk factors in HIV patients, and shorten the patients’ life span e.g. older age, female gender, unemployment, delay in HIV diagnosis, drug injection, and higher Hemoglobin (HGB) levels.
    Conclusion
    Many factors affect HIV patients’ survival time. Some of these factors, such as gender and genetic factors, are irreversible. However, some others, including drug injection, are preventable. This implies that in order to slow down the speed of HIV conversion to AIDS and delay the occurrence of death, special attention must be paid to these factors and changing the patients’ conditions accordingly.
    Keywords: Survival analysis, Cox regression, HIV, AIDS, Iran
  • Mina Hoseini, Abbas Bahrampour, Moghaddameh Mirzaee
    Background
    Breast cancer is the most common cancer after lung cancer and the second cause of death. In this study we compared Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox regression on the survival of breast cancer.
    Study design: A cohort study.
    Methods
    The current study retrospective cohort study was conducted on 140 patients referred to Ali Ibn Abitaleb Hospital, Rafsanjan southeastern Iran from 2001 to 2015 suffering from breast cancer. We determined and analyzed the effective survival causes by different models using STATA14.
    Results
    According to AIC, log-normal model was more consistent than Weibull. In the multivariable Lognormal model, the effective factors like smoking, second -hand smoking, drinking herbal tea and the last breast-feeding period were included. In addition, using Cox regression factors of significant were the disease grade, size of tumor and its metastasis (p-value
    Conclusions
    Based on different methods for survival analysis, researchers can decide how they can reach a better conclusion. This comparison indicates the result of semi-parametric Cox method is closer to clinical experiences evidences.
    Keywords: Cure Model, breast cancer, Cox regression, Lognormal
  • Jamshid Yazdani-Charati, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Afsane Fendereski, Soraya Mohammadi, Nadia Alipour
    Background
    Tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of death among infectious diseases worldwide. Identifying the factors associated with the treatment delay and total delay would be helpful in the prevention of tuberculosis and in reducing the burden on the health care system. The objective of this study was to assess the treatment delay and total delay in TB patients and investigate the factors causing these delays.
    Materials And Methods
    This was a longitudinal study conducted in 2009-2015. Our study consisted of 1694 TB patients registered in the TB center of Mazandaran province. Data regarding the patients’ demographic characteristics and clinical factors associated with treatment delay and total delay were analyzed. Kaplan Meier plots and log rank tests were used to assess the survival pattern. Cox proportional hazards model for multivariable analysis was discussed. We used mean values and median (Q2) [first quartile (Q1)-third quartile (Q3)] to describe delays.
    Results
    The median treatment delay and total delay were 35 (ranged 23-80) and 36 (ranged 24-82) days,respectively. The mean age of TB patients was 47.40±20.3. No significant association was found between the location of residence , nation ality ,gender, and type of pulmonary TB patients with treatment delay and total delay. Additionally,age,prison status of patients,HIV test,and contact history had a significant relationship with the treatment delay and total delay (p-value 60 age groups,and were 41 and 44 days,respectively. Treatment delay was the same as the total delay except in the place of residence variable; median treatment delay among urban patients was less than that of rural patients.
    Conclusion
    According to this study age,prison status of patients,HIV test and contact history had a significant relationship with the treatment delay and total delay (P-value
    Keywords: Tuberculosis, Cox Regression, Survival, Treatment Delay, Total Delay
  • Fatemeh Khaldari, Narges Khanjani, Abbas Bahrampour, Mohammad Reza Ghotbi Ravandi, Ali Ali Asghar Arabi Mianroodi
    Extended exposure to noise can cause permanent hearing damage. This study aimed to determine the incidence time of hearing loss and its effective factors in workers exposed to noise. This retrospective cohort study, was conducted on a total of 273 workers in various sectors of Kerman Copper by-industries Co. Their hearing status and the incidence of hearing loss (hearing threshold higher than 25 dB) were measured at regular intervals through audiographs. Survival analysis was done using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox Regression analysis through STATA 12. The time range (from the onset of the risk to the incidence of hearing loss) was between 8 to 14 years. Systolic blood pressure alone and in interaction with years of employment was significantly related to the incidence of hearing loss at all frequencies. Initial hearing threshold and age at employment also had a significant impact on the onset time of hearing loss. The interaction between age at employment×initial hearing threshold; and years of employment×age at employment; in both low and high frequencies had a significant impact on the incidence time of hearing loss. Despite the availability of protective equipment in this industry, hearing loss occurred in at least half of the workers after about 10 years. High systolic blood pressure, age at employment, and initial hearing thresholds probably play a role in the incidence time of hearing loss.
    Keywords: Occupational hearing loss, Survival analysis, Cox regression, Longitudinal study
  • کریم آتشگر *، سید هادی مولانا، اکبر بیگلریان، آیه شیخ علیان
    زمینه و هدف
    سرطان پستان، شایع ترین سرطان زنان و دومین علت مرگ و میر ناشی از سرطان در زنان بعد از سرطان ریه است. مدل بقا، رابطه ای رگرسیونی است که مشخص می کند چه عواملی در طول عمر یک بیمار مبتلا به یک نوع بیماری خاص، تاثیر می گذارند. مدل بقای بیماران مبتلا به سرطان پستان را به عنوان یکی از معیارهای اصلی کنترل سرطان و اندازه گیری تاثیر درمان می توان پذیرفت، به طوری که میزان بقاء شاخص مهمی جهت ارزیابی اثربخشی تشخیص روش درمانی و میزان تاثیر روش های درمان سرطان پستان است. هدف این مطالعه، برآورد بقای بیماران مبتلا به سرطان پستان بر اساس مراجعه کنندگان به بیمارستان بعثت تهران، با استفاده از مدل رگرسیونی کاکس است.
    مواد و روش ها
    در این مطالعه طولی 499 بیمار با تشخیص سرطان پستان، که طی سال های 1389 الی1394پس از عمل جراحی، تحت درمان های کمکی از قبیل هورمون درمانی، شیمی درمانی و رادیوتراپی قرار گرفته بودند، بررسی شد و مشخصات بالینی، درمانی و وضعیت بقای آنان بر اساس نمودار کاپلان مایر و مدل مخاطرات کاکس ثبت و بررسی گردید.
    یافته ها
    میانگین (± انحراف معیار) سنی بیماران3/50 (± 1/11) سال بود. شایع ترین نوع بدخیمی کارسینوم مجاری با 88 درصد موارد و 18 درصد بیماران در مرحله III بیماری مراجعه کرده بودند. بقای 1، 2 و 5 ساله کل بیماران به ترتیب برابر 87، 63 و 50 درصد بوده است. تجزیه و تحلیل های آماری نشان داد که سن، اندازه تومور، وجود متاستاز در زمان تشخیص و هورمون درمانی که به وضعیت رسپتوری وابسته است، رابطه معنی داری با مخاطره مرگ این بیماران دارد. لذا مدل بقاء رگرسیون کاکس در این مطالعه، بر اساس این متغیرها پیشنهاد و تحلیل بقای بیماران بر این اساس انجام شد.
    نتیجه گیری
    احتمال بقاء با افزایش سن کاهش می یابد. این کاهش برای گروه سنی بالاتر از 75 سال (کاهش 55%) قابل ملاحظه است. این پژوهش نشان می دهد که خطر مرگ در بیمارانی که تحت هورمون درمانی قرار گرفته اند، بسیار کمتر از بیمارانی است که هورمون استروژن دریافت نکرده اند، زیرا بیمارانی که هورمون درمانی شدند، دارای گیرنده استروژن و پروژسترون مثبت بوده اند که پیش آگهی مناسبی برای این بیماری است. همچنین اگر بیماران در مراحل ابتدایی بیماری و بدون غدد لنفاوی درگیر، شناسایی شوند و درمان مناسب دریافت کنند، طول عمر بیشتری خواهند داشت. لذا آموزش به خانم ها در جهت شناسایی سرطان پستان در مراحل اولیه، باید با جدیت بیشتری توسط مراکز بهداشتی دنبال شود.
    کلید واژگان: میزان بقاء، سرطان پستان، مدل رگرسیون کاکس
    Atashgar K.*, Molana S. H., Biglarian A., Sheikhaliyan A
    Introduction &
    Objective
    Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women and the second leading cause of cancer related mortality after lung cancer. Survival models, a regression equation that determines what the life of a patient with a particular disease affects. The survival of patients with breast cancer as one of the main criteria to measure the impact of cancer control and treatment can be accepted. So that the survival rate is an important indicator to assess the effectiveness of diagnosis and the treatment effect of breast cancer treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the survival rate of patients with breast cancer who referred to hospital by air force mission of the Islamic Republic, using a Cox regression model.
    Materials and Methods
    In this longitudinal study of 499 patients with breast cancer during the years 1389 to 1394 after surgery, treatment aids such as hormone therapy, chemotherapy and radiotherapy had been investigated, and clinical characteristics, treatment and condition of their survival were recorded.
    Results
    The mean age (± SD) of patients was 3.50 (± 1.11) years. The most common type of malignancy were invasive duct carcinoma by 88% and 18% of patients with stage III disease had been admitted. One, two and five -year survival of the patient was 87%, 63% and 50%, respectively. Statistical analysis showed that age, tumor size, metastasis and hormone therapy was a significant relationship with the risk of death in these patients, so Cox regression survival model in this study, based on this proposal, and survival analysis based on it is done.
    Conclusions
    Survival following diagnosis of cancer has decreased with the increasing of age groups. The decreasing rate for age group of 75 is noticeable. This study shows that the risk of death in patients who undergo hormone therapy are much lower than patients who were not able to hormone therapy because patients who were treated with testosterone, estrogen and progesterone receptors were positive prognosis for this disease. As well as patients who have lymph nodes involved in the early stages of the disease were identified and receive appropriate treatment, life will be more. Therefore, education to early diagnosis of breast cancer in women must be considered and followed seriously.
    Keywords: Survival Rate, Breast Cancer, Cox Regression
  • Maryam Parvareh, Narges Khanjani *, Zahra Frahmandinia, Bijan Nouri
    Background and
    Purpose
    Leukemia is the most prevalent type of cancer in children and its prognostic factors vary in different geographic locations. The aim of this study was to estimate the 5 years survival rate of children suffering from leukemia in Kerman, Iran and to investigate the factors which might influence it.
    Materials And Methods
    This was a cohort study conducted on patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Cases were all younger than 15 years old admitted to Afzalipour Hospital, Kerman, Iran between 1998 and 200, and included 219 patients. Survival rates were estimated by applying the Kaplan–Meier method. Log-rank test was used to estimate the statistical difference in survival probability and the effect of independent variables on survival was examined using Cox regression. All analyses were performed using STATA-12.
    Results
    The cumulative 5 years rate of survival in this study was 58% and 43% for ALL and AML, respectively, and the difference was statistically significant (P = 0.0030). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that white blood cell (WBC) &ge 50,000 &mul (P = 0.0100) and relapse (P = 0.0060) of ALL patients has a significant effect on survival. In AML due to the small number of patients significant results were not achieved. The cumulative survival rate at the end of 1 year for low, medium and high-risk patients were estimated 97%, 94%, and 78%.
    Conclusion
    Leukemia patients with and WBC &ge 50,000 &mul and a history of relapse had less survival.
    Keywords: Survival, Cox Regression, Acute Leukemia, Children
نکته
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