The Sources of Current Account Fluctuations: Case Study Iran and Mexico

This article investigates the sources of current account fluctuations of IRAN and MEXICO economy using quarterly data. This study develops an open economy heterogeneous-agent theoretical model, and tests the implications of the model by estimating structural vector-autoregression (SVAR) empirical models. A theoretical working model of the current account closely follows Bussiere et al. (2004), Daniel (1993) and Bergin and Sheffrin (2000). We impose identifying restrictions with Following Gal (1992) and Blanchard and Quah (1989) approach to recover the structural shocks. Also we analyze corresponding dynamic effects using Forecasting Error Variance Decomposition Analysis and Impulse Response Function Analysis tools. The results show domestic permanent net output shocks such as efficiency policies and domestic temporary net output shocks such as fiscal policies mainly have a role of important on the sources of current account fluctuations.