Instability of Export and Economic Growth in Iran: Estimation and Predication from the Perspective of GMDH Neural Network

The important role of export in economic growth and development and its impact on different economic sectors constitute a broad and significant issue upon which a large number of economists have been concentrating their minds, and has even branched out extensively into other scientific fields. In this regard, developing countries benefit from potential endowments due to relative advantages and huge amount of resources and have expertise in raw materials production and international specialization has led these countries to be dependent on raw materials export earnings. Likewise, considering that export's commodity prices are unpredictable, their fluctuations lead to export earnings be violated. Consequently, the economy as a whole would negatively or positively be affected and these result in instability of economic growth. For this purpose, this study aims at investigation of relationship between export earning's volatilities and economic growth. Therefore, using estimation of St. Louis growth model over period 1976-2010, and Auto-Regression Distributed Lags (ARDL), effects of export earning's volatilities on economic growth was evaluated. The findings of this study indicate significant negative impact of export earning's volatilities on economic growth.