فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 53 (زمستان 1402)

globalization has different aspects including economic, cultural and political, Also the effects of globalization are different in developing and developed countries, And according to the theoretical point of view, the effect of globalization on economic growth varies over time. Therefore, in the present study, using the time-varying non-parametric panel data model and applying three different aspects of economic, cultural and political globalization KOF index, and considering the de facto and de jure effects of the mentioned index. It has been investigated the different effects of globalization over time on the GDP per capita of countries with high per capita income (28 countries) and middle per capita income (36 countries).The results of estimating the model used in this research based on the local linear dummy variable method for time-varying non-parametric panel data showed that by dividing globalization into de facto and de jure aspects determined Both de facto and de jure aspects of economic globalization during the period from 1980 to 2019 on average have led to economic growth in countries with high per capita income. But de jure aspects of economic globalization almost had a positive effect on the economic growth of countries with middle per capita income especially after 1995 to 2019 And economic globalization has a negative effect on the economic growth of these types of countries from an de facto aspect in most of the investigated years.

For estimating the oil price fluctuations effects on banking system and its relationship with macroeconomy, banking system fragility index has been used in this study. Using Kibritçioglu (2003), an index for banking fragility has been calculated. Then, for investigation of interactions between variables, vector autoregressive Markov switching models. Because, different regimes are recognized by taking oil price effects on the economy and banking system into account, Vector autoregressive Markov switching models with three regimes (high, moderate, and low) and one lag has been estimated. Findings show that after oil shock banking fragility index has lowest rate in regime with low risk and in low risk or stable regime, oil price rise makes economic and banking system conditions better. In moderate risk regime, such rise with stable condition economic conditions makes better and low risk regime emerges although it has higher level of banking fragility. In high-risk regime, oil price shocks make economic as well as banking system conditions worse.

One of the most important lessons of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the importance of maintaining financial stability and curbing systematic risk. Meanwhile, most developing economies around the world are seeking to increase the inclusiveness of their financial systems. Financial inclusion is critical to inclusive growth and provides policy solutions to remove barriers that exclude people from financial markets. In this regard, the main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of financial inclusion and the size of the shadow economy on the economic growth of MENA countries during the period of 2018-2008. The results of spatial panel model estimation show that financial inclusion has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. This means that financial inclusion is an effective tool in strengthening rapid economic growth. The positive relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth shows that increasing banking penetration, availability of banking centers and geographic penetration can strengthen economic growth in the long run. Also, in the studied economies, the size of the shadow economy has a significant negative effect on economic growth, and this shows that the shadow economy is an obstacle to economic development.

Since the infrastructure of growth and development has not been formed in the developing and oil-producing countries, and also the private sector does not have the power to operate in this field due to institutional reasons, weak financial and sometimes technical ability, among the factors affecting macroeconomic indicators. In these countries, government spending is more important, which affects the general planning process regarding the allocation of consumption and capital budgets to each of the economic activities. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of consumption and capital spending impulses The government is under Taylor's two rules of money and the growth of the money supply. To achieve this goal, a general equilibrium model of stochastic dynamics based on the new Keynesian view has been designed using the available information and statistics of Iran's economy during the period of 1370-1399 according to the realities of Iran's economy. Comparing the results obtained from the simulation in two separate models shows that there is not much difference between the interest rate tool and the growth rate of money to influence the variables of the real sector of the economy. On the other hand, in order to influence the non-real variables in the face of the mentioned impulses, the growth rate of the money volume has performed better than the interest rate.

In recent decades, economic growth along with environmental protection is important issue facing most economic societies. On the other hand, with the increase of new technologies and the trade openness, the effect of changing new and extensive structures on the environment has become very important. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of economic complexity and trade openness on the ecological footprint (as an indicator of environmental degradation). For this purpose, the data of 18 developing countries in Asia during the study period from 1990 to 2017 have been used with the Panel-Quantile approach. In addition, the variables of GDP per capita, globalization and financial development were considered as control variables. The results of this study show that the increase in economic complexity in different quantiles reports different results, so that with a one percent increase in economic complexity in the 10th quantile, the ecological footprint has decreased by more than one percent, but an increase in economic complexity in the 50th quantile has caused the deterioration of the quality of the environment. The results show that the increase in trade in all quantiles has helped to improve the environment. Moreover, with increasing globalization and financial development, the ecological footprint has increased in all quantiles. In addition, the results of this study indicate that the increase in per capita income has reported different results in different quantiles.

Economic complexity is one of the criteria for measuring the knowledge-based economy of a country. Several studies have shown that improving the economic complexity index leads to sustainable economic growth and improved welfare. Therefore, policy makers tend to place the development and progress of the country in the path of knowledge-based economy and production of complex products. But the channel of influence of complexity on the economy of a country is questionable. Identifying this channel can lead to the focus of development policies. The hypothesis investigated in this research is the effectiveness of economic complexity on the field of factory activities. In the literature review, it was found that the relationship between these two variables is not predetermined. To test the hypothesis, a statistical sample including 46 countries has been selected for a period of 31 years ending in 2020. The PMG model has been used for data processing. The result of the estimation of the model shows that the increase in the added value of factory industries is one of the consequences of the improvement of economic complexity. This finding can help to set development policies.

The article purpose is analysis of decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions energy-related and economic growth in 6 Middle East countries in period 1990-2019. For this, CO2 emissions driving mechanisms were first quantified using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, and then decomposed into factors of CO2 emission coefficient, energy intensity, economic activity and population. Next, the decoupling state of each country was analyzed using the Tapio model. The findings show that population and economic activities factors were main drivers of CO2 emissions in these countries. The results of decoupling elasticity showed that Iran was in a weak decoupling state in period of 1990-1999 and 2015-2019; It means the simultaneous increase of economic growth and carbon emissions, of course, by faster economic growth; Iran had also an expansive coupling state in period of 2000-2014, which indicates that CO2 emissions increase along economic growth. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have reached an ideal situation in recent years. These countries have moved from a negative decoupling and expansive coupling state to a strong decoupling state, where economic growth has been accompanied by a reduction in carbon emissions. The Kuwait and Turkey have been in a stable situation and have been in weak decoupling and negative expansive decoupling states in the last 3 decades, in which economic growth was accompanied by an increase in carbon emissions, but economic growth increased faster in Kuwait. At the beginning, the Egypt has changed to a weak decoupling state and then moved to an expansive negative decoupling state.

In macroeconomic literature, the growth of human capital is so important that if economic growth occurs and this growth cannot improve the condition of human capital, it seems that the efforts have been fruitless. Human capital is measured through the HDI index, and due to the need to improve it, many studies have been conducted in this field.Human capital in any country is based on the state of human capital in the provinces of the country. Providing better services to human capital will improve this huge capital, and achieving it requires the existence of sufficient funds and powers in the provinces. The vastness of the country may not allow the government to optimally allocate resources, so usually local authorities try to have more authority for the growth of human capital through various pursuits and bargaining, which increases the authority of the governor, which is financial decentralization.Financial decentralization is a multi-dimensional process in which some powers are transferred from the central government to the governors, and the most important of which is the return of all revenues of each province to the same province and the sending of grants to the provinces through the central government.The results of the research show that the increase in financial decentralization and the return of revenues from each province to the same province and even grants from the central government have a significant positive effect on the amount of public spending, economic growth, reducing the population of low-income people.