Simulation and Forecast of Iran's Non-oil Export until the 2025 Horizon

In the modern economy, a country's level of development is directly related to its international trade volume. Thus, export development and finding sources of foreign exchange are of prime importance in policy-making. By employing auto-regression, vector error correction, Johannson and genetic algorithm, we examine the impact of factors affecting non-oil exports for the period 1971-2009. Results show that in the long run the GDP and export prices in global markets are the crucial factors affecting non-oil exports. Also, domestic inflation and exchange rates in the long run, have less impact on non-oil exports. In the genetic algorithm, the model of export supply is analyzed in the form of three linear, exponential and second degree equations. In the exponential model -with its high level of accuracy in estimating the non-oil exports- the non-oil GDP and the market exchange rates have a direct relation, and global prices for export goods and domestic ones have inverse correlation with non-oil exports. In the end, we forecast the supply of non-oil exports untill 2025.