The Estimation of Smuggling Goods in Iran Using the MIMIC Approach

This study investigated the main determinants of smuggling goods in Iran during 1975-2009 using the Multiple Indicators-Multiple Causes (MIMIC) approach. The findings of the research show that the value of smuggling goods has been fluctuating from a maximum of 36. 52% in proportion to Iran''s GDP (at constant prices of 1998) in 1974 to a minimum of 15. 61% in proportion to the GDP in 1982 with an average of 20. 88%. The results also indicate that the rate of inflation، education، economic openness and the size of government were the most important determinants of the value of smuggling in Iran. The value of smuggling goods has affected both oil products and demand for money، but oil products tend to be more affected.