Fire risk modeling and prediction in district three of Neka-Zalemroud forest, using Geographical Information System

The aim of the study was to predict future fires at District Three of Neka-Zalemroud Forests، using fire risk modeling. Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) method was used to weight the effective fire factors، then map of each factor was developed for modeling sites with fire risk. The fire factors consisted of four major criteria and 17 sub-criteria. The major criteria consisted of topographical، biological، climatical and human factors. The maps of these factors were developed، using DEM and existing data in Neka Corporation Company. In addition، the past fires map was generated، using existing data in the Company and mapping fire patches perimeter by GPS. Verbal scales and results of distributed questionnaires among forest fire experts were used to weight the effective fire factors، using fuzzy AHP. Then relation consistency of each criterion was calculated، in order to investigate accuracy of criteria weight. Results showed that final weight of human، biological، climatical and topographical factors in forest fire risk potential were 0. 301، 0. 2595، 0. 2315 and 0. 208، respectively. Local fire risk model was presented، using weight of each criterion and sub-criterion، based on fuzzy AHP. Then map of effective fire factors (17 sub-criteria) was standardized، using fuzzy membership command in GIS and the pixel values of each map were scaled between 0 and 1. Finally، at first major criteria map (using weighted overlay of sub-criteria maps of each criterion) then fire risk map (using weighted overlay of four major criteria maps) was developed، using fire risk model equation. Overall، fire risk map was presented at five classes. Results showed that the sites with high fire risk on the developed map of fire risk potential are highly in accordance with the sites with past fire records which shows the high validation and accuracy of the developed model.