Evaluation of Survival and Risk Probability of Exchange Regimes in Economies Having Exchange Anchor Monetary System and Inflation Targeting - Duration Model Approach

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the survival and risk probability of pegged and floating exchange rate regimes in different countries: those having exchange rate anchor versus those having inflation targeting monetary regimes during 1999-2010. In order to achieve the goal, Duration Model Approach will be used to represent the survival and risk analysis of pegged and floating exchange rate regimes. The empirical findings of this paper suggest that, in two groups of countries, the floating exchange rate is a credible regime and it has a lower risk and then higher survival probability.