Prediction the Rainfall Changes with Downscaling LARS-WG and HadCM3 models in Kerman during the next 20 years (2030-2011)

Atmospheric General Circulation Models have great scale and weak separate power so downscale stations have used. Therefore for downscale weather generator must be used. Using the output of general circulation models and weather generators can be used to simulate the regional climate. In this study، output data of HADCM3 atmospheric general circulation model with three climate change scenarios، A1B، A2 and B1 is downscale by the LARS-WG model in Kerman. Results has been assessed and analysed from the nine synoptic stations in Kerman in the recent period from 1991 to 2010 and future periods from 2011 to 2030. In LARS-WG model analysis، amount of error and real data evaluated for suitable region way and after that، rain changing، wet and dry spell length was surveyed. The results of the average rain during the next 20 years show that most rain be long Bam and Rafsanjan station with 26. 5% and lowest rain belong to Kahnouj station with 11%. Results of this study show that the average annual increase in average annual rainfall is at all stations. Findings showed that during wet and dry spell lengths is growing for all stations in the period 2011-2030 in summer. Although winter rainfall is decreasing، but the average rainfall total is rising.