Simulation of Farmer's Behavior towards Applying Water Reduction Policies on Cropping Patterns Using Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP)

This study, focusing on optimal management of agricultural water resources, aimed at investigating simulation of farmer's behavior towards applying policies to decrease the amount of water to strategic crops on cropping pattern in Khorramabad county of Iran. The required data were collected through questionnaire by using stratified random sampling method in the crop year of 2012-13. After determining the cropping pattern, applying the agricultural water reduction policies in six scenarios including 20, 30, 40, and 50 percent decrease in water and doubling the price of water with 30 and 40 percent of water reduction by using positive mathematical programming method (PMP). Results showed that a decreased amount of water consumption by 50 percent would lead to the decrease in cultivated lands of wheat, barley, colza and bean irrigated crops by 49.5, 46.2, 69.6 and 3.8 percent while leaving no change with those of rainfed crops due to their lower market prices and yields and also resulting in water input savings by 56.53 percent.