Using Stochastic Models to Produce Artificial Time Series and Inflow Prediction: A Case Study of Talog Dam Reservoir, Khuzestan Province, Iran

Talog Dam located in Khuzestan province plays an important role in power generation and water supply of the region. Some studies are performed on this dam. These studies produce Artificial Time Series and accurate estimates of inflow to the dam which will have an important role in water resources planning in the future. In this study, using the statistics estimated Talog river at the dam site Talog, stochastic modeling was performed for both of them. Various stochastic models such as Autoregressive Model (AR), Moving Average (MA), and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) were fitted to the data. According to the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria, the results of Modeling showed that ARMA model (2,3) was the best model in comparison with the other models. Therefore, according to the selected Model, five artificial time series and forecasting future time series for the model were performed the results of which are presented in the present study.