An Investigation of Water Dependency: A Case Study of Birjand Plain, Eastern Iran

Growing population is the most important factor affecting water resources. In arid and semi-arid areas, it will be a conflicting issue to allocate limited water resources to different uses. Birjand Plain in eastern Iran is situated in an arid area. In spite of lack of local water resources, the regional economic structure is based mostly on agriculture which is highly dependent on water. The main question is that how much local economy in Birjand Plain depends on water. In this paper, a conceptual model based on the concepts of system dynamics has been developed to show the inter-relationship of economic elements regarding water consumption. In addition to agriculture, the industrial and service sectors have been embedded in the model. The model was used to analyze the water dependency of the regional economy using data facts. The results showed that mines and industrial activities are more reasonable for the regional development in Birjand Plain. However, saffron, barberry, and jujube are the crops which are feasible according to the local conditions of water resources in the agricultural sector.