Qu & Perron Methodology Application in Recognition of the Iranian Economy Oil Shocks

Iran as one of the OPEC members، with a considerable amount of revenue from the sale of oil، is dependent on this revenue considerably. Inflation، liquidity and growth are the main macroeconomic variables so any Shock in oil revenues will distort the Development programs of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. In this study، the oil revenues as an exogenous variable and variable inflation، liquidity and economic growth as endogenous variables in the model were considered. Three oil shocks were identified by Qu & Perron (2007) methodology during the quarterly studied period (1988:02-2014:01) for Iranian Economic، which were 1995:02، 2000:02 and 2005:2. The impact of oil revenues on inflation، economic growth، and money was calculated. The variables uncertainty mentioned in each regime. The results show that the most effect of oil incomes on inflation was in the first regime (1988:02- 1995:02) and the lowest was in the second regime (1995:03-2000:02). The most effect of oil incomes on money was in the second regime and the lowest was for the last regime (2005:03-2014:01). The impact period of oil revenues on economic growth in the last regime was the greatest. Management of foreign exchange reserves of oil and protection of domestic production were the main suggestions of this paper.