An Analysis of the Internal and External Factors Affecting the Expansion of Extremist Movements in the Middle East (based on Chaos Theory and Fractal)

Daesh, with its expansion and reach, has seriously challenged the Middle Eastern. In fact, it is not a newly-formed movement. It is the outcome of some regional countries’ national interests, their geopolitical competitions, political leverage by transregional powers, the floating geopolitical issues, and a suitable context for the emergence of the crisis-making groups as well as the extremist thoughts in the political atmosphere of the Middle Eastern countries. The complexity of interactions between extremist groups and regional players, their expansionist actions and explosive operations, the regional and transregional powers’ different contradictory positions towards these acts, inter-group hostile conflicts, etc required an analysis of the current cumulative situation and a forecast of future situation by adopting Chaos Theory and Fractal and combining them with the concept of butterfly effect. Research findings show that the chaotic atmosphere in the Middle East, affected by the domestic, regional, and transregional factors, let these groups appear. Efficient organization, financial and military aids, using the virtual space, their ideology, and geo-cultural supports helped these groups increase, develop their effects, and become uncontrollable. However, their expansion will be restricted by the geo-strategic conditions of the region and the pressure exerted from the global-regional coalition. It is not improbable that similar groups reappear in the Middle East unless the chaotic situation in national and regional political atmosphere is controlled.