Climate change detection using time series to manage environmental risks, Case study: Arak

Nowadays, global warming and climate change are of the most challenging issues in different ecosystems. So, the detection and prediction of variations of environmental factors especially climate change is a crucial and inevitable issue for national, regional and local plannings as well as long-term development plans. Precdiction of climate change in all the economic sectors will decrease costs and increase efficiency. This study aims is to detect possible changes in annual average temperatures in Arak and the related amounts of annual temperature in Arak stations for 50 years (1955-2005) have been reviewed.
In this research the method is applied method. At first the time serie has drown in order to analyze and determine the sample statistics by using Minitab software. Then the stationary of the mean and variance reviewed by using the software to determine the type and model ,and at the end after the estimation of AR(1) parameter and the amount of remaining , the next 10 years situation is forecast by using the first 40 years data.
Findings: Results of this research demonstrated that for the future 10 years, Arak temperature will have an increasing trend. It should be mentioned that short- term statistics (maximum for 5 years) of adjacent stations has been utilized for trend and model verification and it has been recognized that data processing for prediction of data has been done properly and correlation of actual values is approximately 95 percent.
It is clear that the regional planning and land use planning and environmental risk management will have a higher successful chances by considering the predicted temperature rise.