Estimation of commercial capacities between Iran and Turkey with an emphasis on virtual water trade: Case Study (selected agricultural goods)

on one hand, Iran due to the low annual rainfall and lack of appropriate spatial and temporal distribution in precipitation is considered as an arid and semi-arid country experiencing stress and water scarcity; on the other hand, 90% of annual water consumption has been allocated to agriculture sector in Iran and efficiency and productivity of water consumption do not enjoy favorable status in this sector. While it can overcome this problem by use of virtual water criterion in trade with the countries which enjoy water status such as Turkey. In this regards, the present study has examined this issue in form of selected agriculture goods based on common indices for detection of trade opportunities. Cosine criterion indicated that the degree of similarity and complementary of Turkey’s export with Iran is greater than structural similarity of Iran’s export with Turkey. With regard to trade potential calculations, Iran and Turkey have high export capacity in trade of agriculture goods. Further, Index of Drysdale indicated that the possibility for development of trade from Turkey to Iran is greater than trade from Iran to Turkey and ultimately adjustment of Balasa index based on virtual water trade process indicated that Iran should change its import and export priorities at area of agriculture products. Further, results from research indicate that applying virtual water criterion and removing the products lacking relative advantage in trade between Iran and Turkey result in increase in export of Turkey’s agricultural products to Iran and increase in Iran’s benefit in trade of virtual water.