Application future research to manage risk by dividing earthquake return period of the future (Case Study: Earthquake Rey)

Using of future research methods can be one of the best methods for optimal management in a future in which a disaster may happen at any moment. In this regard, in order to reduce losses caused by the earthquake, it will be prepared to encounter with it by help of future research. The present study tries to reduce the effects of earthquake by establishing a logical and applied relationship between types of future in future research and a recurring period of disasters in disaster management.
This is a comparison research that data was gathered by library method. In this research, at first, future research documents will be studied and the main attention is focused on the future types in it. On the other hand, principle issues of disaster management will be studied.
Findings: For the future type of earthquake in terms of time before the end of the return period more than 50 years, the type of future is not defined. If 50 to 20 years was left it is long term, if 20 to 5 years was left it is medium term, if 5 to 1 years was left it is short term and if one year was left it is near future and according to possibility occurrence it is possible in all scenarios. After the return period the type of future is near and the possibility of occurrence is inevitable that Rey area is located in this period.
To make a logical relationship between types of future in future research and recurrence of disasters in disaster management, three different states were considered. These three states have been defined post-return period considering whether there is over or less than 50 years left to the end of the return period. In this study, the earthquake of Tehran or Shahr-e-Rey is considered as future in post-return period, near and inevitable, so with this belief that the disaster may happen at any moment, management measures must be prepared every year and it must continue every year and only the related information should be updated. In post-return period, the management focus is on preparedness, including immediate and emergency actions and rescue operations.