Portfolio Optimization, Using Fuzzy Rule - Based Expert System

The aim of this study is to construct appropriate portfolios by considering investor’s risk profile and his/her preferences in a flexible, applicable and realistic manner. For this purpose, a fuzzy rule- based expert system is developed to support investment managers in their middle term decision makings. The proposed expert system is validated by using 106 stocks, traded in Tehran Stock Exchange between 1384 and 1389. Performance of the proposed expert system is analyzed in terms of risk profile and investment length compared to market average. The results revealed that performance of the expert system is better than the market average in most cases. Also, in parallel to our expectation, the proposed expert system performance is better for risk-averse investors and in middle term.