Design of Structural Equation and Integrated Causes and Effects Model of Agricultural Land Use Change in Iran According to the Expert's View of Agricultural Land Organization

Agricultural Land Conversion (ALC) is one of the main challenges of humankind in 21 century which is very important because of its direct relations with the other issues include economic, social and environmental aspects. On the one hand, the trend of such changes is influenced by many intertwined and different causes and on the other hand, consequences have led to challenges toward human life. The problem becomes more acute if we know that the per capita of arable land in the world, from 1970 to 2009, has declined 1.46 percent. This decrease for Iran has been about 2.054 percent. Therefore, determining the causes and effects of these changes and analyzing their relationships are very important and it could help policymakers, planners and decision-makers. This is the main object of this study. Structural equation modeling and multiple indicator–multiple cause (MIMIC) models were used as analytical methods. The study group consisted of experts and professionals of agricultural land use. Questionnaire was data collection equipment. The results showed that, the causes of agricultural land use changes could be classified in five (economic, social, environmental, technical and political) and its effects in three (economic, social, environmental) groups. Also, the causes and effects have a significant correlation with each other; they affect each other in both direct and indirect ways. According to experts view, the most effective cause and effect of ALC have been economic and social, respectively.Moreover, in the causes side, technical causes have been the highest average correlation with the other factors, but, in the effect's side, social effects have been the highest average correlation with the other causes and effects.