Analysis of the Impact Climate and ENSO on the Malaria in Kerman Province

Malaria as a mosquito-borne disease is largely dependent on climatic conditions. Temperature, rainfall and relative humidity considered as climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of this disease. Southern and eastern regions of Kerman province is a malaria endemic area in Iran. The purpose of this is to evaluate the effect of climatic factors and ENSO on the incidence of malaria in the south of Kerman. Data, including are meteorological data, ENSO and patients with malaria in the period 2003-2013. The results show that the epidemic in this region is very much dependent on annual and monthly temperature, humidity and precipitation. The relationship between temperature and disease is significant at 0.95. Level so the disease increases with temperature up to 40-c˚ threshold. As well as, the result shows that the epidemic malaria is decreasing with increasing relative humidity and precipitation in south Kerman. The statistical analysis shows that malaria has reaction to ENSO. This relation is different at phase El Nino and La-Niño. In the El-Nino phase is increasing malaria because increasing temperature at this phase but the La-Niño phase is decreasing malaria because increasing relative humidity and precipitation in Southern and eastern Kerman province. Regarding to the occurrence of ENSO in January and the appearance of its effects with 6-9 month delay in the Southern and eastern parts of Kerman province, so, by the analysis of the ENSO phases and the predication of the temperature, relative humidity and precipitation we can provide more efficient malaria control programs.