Developing a Model for Assessment and Ranking of the Construction Projects based on Occurrence Probability of Risk and its Effects on Construction Performance (A Case Study; Department of Engineering and Construction Projects in Military Setting)

Making a huge investment on construction projects in the armed forces could lead to the fulfillment of the basic requirement and also the achievement of strategic purposes. For this purpose, some risks must be identified at the early stages of construction projects. To do so, this study was run in a bid to identify and also assess the risk management of construction projects in the armed forces through utilizing a mixed approach including multi-criteria decision-making methods. This method is taken as an appropriate means of risk analysis of construction projects and is also aimed to identify the low risk construction projects. To do so, in the early stage of investigation, the risks of construction projects were emerged as a result of library study. Thereupon, in the initial stage of suggestive approach, the construction risks were identified and then weighed up based on occurrence probability through running analytical hierarchy process as well as interviewing with elites and experts. Additionally, in the second stage of investigation, low risk construction projects were identified through investigating the effects of identified risks on construction performance and also through running VIKOR method. The findings revealed that in terms of occurrence probability, the risks of supervision, design, and construction projects and also the risk of financial issues stood at the first and second rank of indicators with coefficient of 0.38 and 0.28 respectively. Moreover, the risks related to the geographical and economic events stood at the third rank of indicators with coefficient of 0.13. Finally, a list of ranked construction projects was made through investigating the effects of risk on construction performance.