Mathematical Analysis of Traffic Accidents Using RGM and GM Models

Iran is a country with a large number of accidents and deaths on roadways. It increases direct costs such as medical expenses due to accidents and incidents and indirect costs such as care of the disabled, psychological problems, mental depression in the family, temporary and permanent loss of job. According to the factors affecting accidents in the country, the number of fatal crashes in Khorasan Razavi province was discussed and predicted for years of 1395 to 1398using gray model GM (1,1), circulation model RGM (1,1). The base data for the prediction process was fatal accident data of Khorasan Razavi Province recorded between April 1388 to March 1394. The results improved police surveillance, roads condition as well as the traffic cultural behavior in this province.