Drought Conditions During 2020s in Plasjan Basin

Studies of climate change impacts on future droughts can help programming for the management of water resource and adaptation of the destructive effects of this phenomenon. In this study was tried to assess the climate change in 2011-2030 period and its impact on drought in Plasjan basin. To achieve this purpose, after validating Lars-WG to generate weather parameters, HadCM3 output under A2 scenario downscaled. Next, minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation was predicted. Then SPI index was calculated. The results indicate increase of 7.2 percent in the average of annual precipitation. The most severe agricultural drought will occur in August and hydrological drought will fall out in December based on 6 and 12 months SPI respectively. The annual analysis showed that 75% of the years are in normal condition. Therefore, in Plasjan basin, increasing in droughts frequency will not be expected in 2020s.