Investigating the effect of crop price fluctuations on the optimal cropping pattern in Sari

Farmers have always faced many risks such as price fluctuations in agricultural productions. Therefore, it seems important to identify the farmers risk aversion about price changes and consideration of it in the possible effects of price fluctuations on optimal cropping pattern. In this regard, this study examined the effects of crop price fluctuations on the reaction of sari farmers to the selection of suitable cropping pattern in 2012-2013 crop year using positive mathematical programming model. Data used including crops production costs in 2012-2013 crop year and crops price in 2002-2013 years were collected from Mazandaran Agriculture Organization. GAMS software has been used to analysis data. Results of decreasing 50% to increasing 50% in price fluctuations suggests that land use for riskier crops such as irrigated onions, dryland canola and irrigated potatoes reduce respectively about 17%, 4% and 2% in term of increasing 50% in price fluctuations, while cultivation of low-risk crops such as dryland soybean, dryland wheat and irrigated barley increase about 4%, 0.9% and 0.3%, respectively. According to study results, among the desired crops, cultivation of irrigated wheat has reduced in both increasing and decreasing prices fluctuation. On the other hand, reducing price fluctuations has no effect on rice and barley, while for other crops has observed adverse results to increasing price fluctuations. Such results can depend on the degree of risk aversion, the nature of the data and the ratio of risk to return. So, to deal the bad effects of price fluctuations should choose crops that have been minimal changes.