Assessment of IHACRES Model in Surface Run-off Simulation in Climate Change Status: A case study Kan Basin

Basins are an open meanwhile a complex system. Most of analysis and behaviour predictions are depend on modeling with different mathematical and statistical methods. Limitations of water resources along with uneven distribution of precipitations have caused, Iran to be very fragile to climate change. As it is not possible to gauge all basins, modeling is necessary. So a model should be selected which needs minimum input data and meanwhile can present a reasonable output. The most important output can be surface ruoff volumes. Among references,IHACRES was selected. Different assessing indexes were used such as NSE, R2, RMSE,MAE etc. these indexes show that based on reference period, IHACRES can simulate surface runoff relevantly and also it gives a better estimate in monthly scale compared to others such as annual one. Runoff were predicted for 2011-2030. It is concluded that surface runoff may change up – 18.65%.