The composition of different Scenarios of effective factors in tourism Development in Western Azerbaijan by Wizard Scenario

The tourism industry, one of the largest industries in the world, so in the past few decades, increasing tourism is the major industry in the world faster. Various countries are trying to extend the tourism business in their countries and attract more and more international tourists they execute a series of accurate scheme to gain it,s income and advantages. For the better development of tourism need proper planning are enjoying a Today, in the planning of tourism development, future studies using new methods, especially scenario due to flexible strategies to resolve land issues is very helpful. Future Studies as a method Scenario Writing tools for policy analysis and understanding the situation, threats, opportunities, needs and values the future premier. So, this research,s subject is composing scenarios of effective factors on tourism Developement of west Azer baijan by wizard scenario. This research is applied and the way that they survey is done by ways of future research and it is probative. In this research. According to it,s essence, necessary information gather by 2 1. Library research method 2. Questionnaire method. Giren that, they use MicMac software and Wizard Scenario for analyzing data, matrix questionnaire has mutual effects and it is according to the ideas of experts. Results of MicMac software, as the most important factor determining factors were identified. was recognizing 14 factors that was decreased to 12 factors. According to the chosen factors, there is 37 different situations for them. Scenario Wizard output scenarios are: 4 scenarios with Strong Consistency, 1600 scenarios with Weak consistency and 672 scenarios with Max. inconsistency. The results show four scenarios more likely to occur in the future tourism development in the province. Of the four scenarios, the first scenario favorable conditions and ideal (scenario Promoter), In this scenario, positive trends are all key factors and positive change over time in the development of tourism in the province. scenario 2 scenario is relatively favorable and the intermediate and scenario number three and four situations unfavorable for the future status of the Province shows. These two scenarios are positive and favorable key factor. As a result, the prospect of these two scenarios would be indicative of a state of passive tourism.