Evaluation of Hydrological Response in Tilabad Watershed of Golestan for Future Periods as Affected by the Predicted Land use Change

The aim of study was set to evaluate components of the hydrological cycle in Tilabad Watershed during future periods as affected by the predicted land use change. For this purpose, using MSS (1986), ETM (2000) and OLI (2015) Landsat satellite images a land use map was produced in seven categories. Then, two likely future land use maps were predicted based on Markov chain modeling and cellular Automata approach for the years 2025 and 2040. Simulation for 2000-2014 years and by using SWAT model and SUFI2 program was done. The results of maps assessment of the years 1986, 2000 and 2015 with the kappa index 0.9553, 0.8655 and 0.9612 respectively, shows destruction trend overall. The match assessment between simulated and actual land use for 2015 showed a kappa coefficient 0.7993. In the analysis of land use was determined with degradation of the region to runoff, sediment, the water, subcortical flow, and evapotranspiration increased and the amount of groundwater flow, backflow from the aquifer surface, deep aquifer recharge, and permeability and Hydraulic conductivity were reduced significantly. Also, the value of peak and medium was increased and base flow as reduced. Generally, the effects of changes in 2040 Compared to 2025 was more.