Monitoring and simulation of land cover pattern in rural areas of East Guilan using Markov chain model & cellular automata

Changes resulting from changes in land use and land cover is one of the most important factors in the instability of rural settlements in recent decades. Monitoring of land cover pattern and simulation of future changes is an essential and vital issue for Planning of Ecological Resource Management. this issue in natural environment of guilan due to unique forest conditions is crucial in the sustainability of rural settlements.
This study analyzed changes in land cover of rural areas at East guilan (AstanehAshrafieh, Siahkal, Lahijan & Langerood with area of 2260 km2) over 3 periods. 1989-TM, 2000 –ETM & 2015 land sat 8 images were processed. In order to prediction of changes in land cover untill 2030probability matrix of changes in 6 classes (including urban, rice field, gardens, water source, forests & lands without cover) was calculated. all analyses were performed using markov chain model & cellular automata. Results of changes detection between 1989- 2015 show that area of rice fields, forests & lands without cover has been decreased, but area of urban regions & gardens has been increased.
According to these results, instability of rural settlements will escalate, if there is no fundamental action in making policy for conservation of resources. Results of simulation of future confirms this issue as well. Assessments predict that until 2030, area of rice fields will be reduced 800 hectares. area of urban regions and gardens will be increased respectively 5300 and 4500 hectares.