Futures investment and financing of rail transportation industry (machinery and equipment)

Transportation industry is considered as one of the most important elements of national economy and because of possessing basically role, has abundant effects on process of economic growth of the country. Thus, without existence of transportation network, installations and lateral equipment and desired fleet, imagination of growth and general development of country sounds impossible. in this research with applying two methods of futures study including structural analysis and scenario planning at first proceed to identifying and analyzing key effective factors and then futures scenarios of investing and financing in railway transportation industry (machinery and equipment sector) will be wrote. First data of this research are gathered with using interview with managers and experts of railway industry, literature review and review antecedent researches and analyzed in the form of expert questionnaire and using Mic-mac software. among 40 effective factors, 16 important factors are identified and with analyzing Mic-mac software, eventually 3 effective key factors including economic sanctions, inflation and monetary and financial policies specified. These factors used as basically foundations in writing scenarios. Set of probable conditions of these factors specified by experts and then 7 uncertain conditions considered for them and entered to Scenario wizard software. with analysis of Scenario wizard software, 5 scenarios with high consistency presented and then with regard to experts viewpoints, 2 effective key factors including economic sanctions and monetary and financial policies that have high uncertainty and high importance, identified as pivots of writing future scenarios and then 4 scenarios for future of investing and financing in railway transportation industry presented.