Simulation consequences of climate change on heating needs in Fars province by downscaling output of atmospheric circulation models

Increasing demand for energy in the widespread energy resource depletion along with the consequences of global warming, the importance of quantitative heating needs in the coming decades makes it essential. To get this aim, simulated daily temperature data were drawn from general circulation of the atmosphere database EH5OM. Then, through Downscaling model, average data of daily temperature with separation 0/27˟0/27 geographical length and width degrees that covered approximately dimensions with 30˟30 kilometers of province land were down scaled in a period of time (2015-2050). After that, Temperature threshold of each cell was counted through percentile, 10 and 90, and this threshold was extended to some cells (158 cells). Finally, monthly average of heating day degree was counted in a matrix with dimensions of 12˟13140. According to simulated data of models, a place with heating day in a monthly and yearly temporal frame was drawn and its relationship with geographical height, width and length was investigated. The result showed that in the future decades, especially in February and May, Northern half of province heating need will have a great reduction in comparison to previous periods which leads to get warmer winter and spring in northern half of province. The most heating need in both periods is in northern areas in Abadeh and Eghlid in which its highest is in January with the amount of 600 degrees per day. Furthermore, the least changes belong to fall that approximately in each period with regard to the range of heating has the same amount. Analyses also showed that degree of heating day at least in seven months is stable in the future. November month has the highest amount of correlation with meaningful factor of 0.01.