Impact of Job Uncertainty on Fertility Rate in Iran’s Provinces

In recent years, declining fertility rate has been main problem in Iran. The theoretical framework shows that economic and social variables affect fertility rate. Household expected income is one of the most important variables influencing fertility rate. Expected income is directly related to the quality and quantity of future parents’ jobs. Using a panel data model, this research investigates the effect of labor market uncertainty on fertility rate in Iran's provinces during 2005-2013. Since there is no single index for labor market uncertainty, a proxy for job uncertainty was calculated for women and men. According to research findings, job uncertainty in both women and men is of important influence on fertility rate. Men's job uncertainty has a positive effect, but women's job uncertainty has a negative effect on fertility rate. As a result, the structure and expectations of the labor market among men and women are crucial factors in determining fertility rate. Hence, policymakers can increase fertility rates by improving the labor market structure