Estimation of Annual Population Attributable Fraction of the Most Important Human Risk Factors for Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) on Highways and Streets of the Great Tehran

  Human errors are the most important factors for RTIs, which have been addressed in few quantitative studies. The objective of this study was to calculate the annual population attributable fraction (PAF) of the most important human risk factor for RTIs in the streets and highways of the Great Tehran.

In this study, the data of 124518 individuals registered in the COM114 form of the Police Information and Communication Technology (ICT- FAVA) data system of the country were employed in 2014. A regression model was applied to estimate the magnitude of the impact of traffic violations of drivers with RTIs using the adjusted relative risk ratio. To estimate the PAF, the prevalence and effect size were calculated based on the risk ratio (RR) using the baseline method or the Miettinen formula.

The PAF of driving in reverse gear and failure to observe safe distance was 1.98% and 1.93%, respectively. Driving in the reverse gear and failure to observe the safe distance increased RTIs by 22% and 23%, respectively. On the highways of the Great Tehran, the largest proportion of PAF was related to driving in reverse gear (1.96%), sudden movement of the car (1.90%), speeding (1.87%). Speeding increased the risk of RTIs by 23%.

Monitoring traffic violations can decrease road crashes by 10% in the streets. Moreover, on highways, use of strategies to prevent traffic violations can decrease RTIs by up to 15%.