The Futurological Identification of the Impact of Takfiri Groups on the National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2018-2028)

Terrorist groups have been regarded as important threats against national security throughout various eras. Justifying their monopolistic and ideological actions against national identity, they polarize the society and eventually disrupt national security. The purpose of this study is to predict the behavior of Takfiri and terrorist groups in future and their impacts on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). The main question of the research concerns how the behavior of Takfiri groups affects the future of the national security of the IRI during 2018-2028. The research hypothesizes, from a futurist perspective that Takfiri groups will influence political, economic, social, cultural and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran Influences Iran in future by intensifying religious sectarianism, and ethnic and linguistic differences. The research methodology is based on scenario analysis, one of the most important methods of futures analysis. The research findings indicate that four scenarios can be considered in this regard: 1. Probable scenario: the continuation of the existing situation of this time, and the likelihood that the Takfiri groups impose great problems on the national security of IRI in the vulnerable areas. 2. Desirable scenario: complete elimination of Takfiri groups with no threats against the security of Iran. 3. Possible scenario: complete success of Takfiri groups in the region and the possibility of completely distorting the national security of Iran by penetrating into the country. 4. Plausible scenario: the failure and removal of Takfiri groups from the Middle East to areas far away, such as Africa or Far East in Asia, with minimal impact on Iran’s national security. The weakness and strengths of each of these scenarios are discussed in a framework containing 12 indicators. The theoretical framework of this research is based on the theory of defensive and offensive realism.