Urban expansion and physical development simulation using fuzzy cellular automata (FCA).Case Study: Ahwaz City

This study is proposed a model of urban expansion based on cellular automata principles and fuzzy logic approach. The most effective indicators were first selected using the DEMATEL method. The weight of each indicator was then obtained with the help of the prepared structure using the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Three satellite images of 2003, 2007, and 2013 were used to simulate urban growth of Ahvaz in the year 2020. The selected base year was 2003. After performing preprocessing operations, the images were classified using the maximum likelihood method. The combination of fuzzy logic and the classic cellular automata model was made operational by defining the transition rules using the degrees of fuzzy membership. The Kappa index was employed in two stages to study accuracy of the images. The images of the base year were first classified and their accuracy was examined, and the accuracy of the simulated images with respect to reality was also investigated for the year 2007 and then simulation of the images of the other years was performed. Since the degree of accuracy of the model was considered acceptable, the linear regression model and the matrix of transition probabilities were employed for simulation in 2020. Results indicated the model enjoyed acceptable accuracy. It also yielded more realistic results in urban simulations compared to the classic CA method. Moreover, and growth and development of Ahvaz in different periods did not take place in any specific direction but rather was completely irregular and occurred in all directions.