Application of Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA) and Firefly Algorithm (FA) on Simulating and Forecasting Money Demand in Iran up to 1404

Money demand is one of the most important economic variables which is a critical component in appointing and choosing an appropriate monetary policy because it determines the transmission of policy-driven change in monetary aggregates to real sector. Demand for M1 is simulated in this inquiry using FA and COA algorithms and three functional forms (linear, quadratic and exponential) are considered. Investigating the forecasting accuracy criteria indicated that the most subtle model is used for forecasting money demand up to 1404 horizon under three (optimistic, pessimistic and the middle) scenarios. More minuteness of COA, choosing exponential form as the most subtle functional form, the direct relation of GDP and the exchange rate with money demand, the reverse relation of inflation rate with money demand, 11.23 and 6.29 and 0.68 percent average growth rate of money under optimistic, pessimistic and the middle scenarios, and money demand decrease in pessimistic scenario form 1401, are some of the main results. The results of scenario designing and executing show that the efficiency and consequences of monetary authorities in accompany with money demand are dependent on appropriate policies about inflation and exchange rate.