Forecasting land use changes using multi-temporal images and the Marko chain model (Case Study: Ilam city)

In recent years, many lands of Iran cities, especially marginal lands of the cities affected by the process of urbanization and the citizens need to new house, has changed the  land use and converted to constructed areas. Given that, Ilam city like other cities has faced with increasing population in recent years; we are faced with considerable changes and conversions in urban land use of this city. In this study, with the use of multi-temporal Landsat images related to years of 1976, 2001 and 2007 and using satellite image processing technique , the changes in land use in the periods of 1976 up to 2007 have been investigated and post classification comparison and with emphasis on forecasting the  land use changes and especially the spatial expansion of city Ilam in 1409 (2020 AD) and 1419 (2030 AD) using Marko chain model has been made. Based on results of this research, land use changes and area of the city were calculated and compared. Results during the period 1976 to 2007shows increasing 1905/73 hectare of residential area and degradation of 2066/17 hectare of forest and it was found that the size and scale of Ilam, in order, effect intensity are: increasing residential and agricultural land use and decreasing forest, barren land and the horticulture and with this trend, residential land in 1976 with 268/67 hectare will be 2600/77 hectares in 2040 according to projections made ​​by model. It also reflects the desire to promote the physical development of Ilam city in all spatial dimensions.