The Relationship of Public Spending with Terrorism and Crime in the Countries of the MENA Region; P-VAR Approach

According to statistics and evidence from the World Terrorist Database on the Terrorism Situation in the World and in the Mine Region, since 2004, the incidence of terrorist acts in the world and in this region has risen sharply. Governments try to increase the level of social security in the country by increasing their public expenditures, thereby reducing the crime and the terrorist acts. The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamic relationship between public expenditures with crime and terrorism in MENA countries from 2003 to 2016 using the P-VAR approach. The results of the estimated model show that the existence of crime and terrorism has a positive dynamic effect on the general expenditures of the MENA countries. Also, the results of the analysis of variance decomposition indicate that the response to public expenditures varies by level of criminal activity and terrorism, so that criminal activity against terrorist activities has a greater contribution to the variance in these costs. In order to examine the dynamics of the model variables, IRF indicate that the shock caused by public expenditures has had a decreasing effect on crime, but the effects of this shock on terrorist attacks are meaningless, and this issue of inappropriate public spending In order to reduce the number of terrorist attacks in the countries of the MENA countries.