فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال دهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 39، زمستان 1402)

Trade imbalances are often a result of discrepancies in the production and consumption of economic activities. Given the limited availability of capital, knowledge, and resources in Iran, the theory of unbalanced growth suggests that investing in selected activities can help address these imbalances. Additionally, neo-structuralists argue for determining the appropriate level of trade. This study first identified production chains within Iran's domestic environment to achieve symmetric production and trade. Then, the latest input-output table (published by the Central Bank of Iran (2016)) examined the country's foreign trade performance within these chains. The findings reveal that Iran's domestic economy primarily operates upstream of production chains. Because the main exports of Iran are raw and semi-raw products. The contribution of vertical specialization in Iran's trade is insignificant and primarily includes downstream activities. Thus, to achieve symmetric trade, investing in downstream activities within domestic production chains is necessary, as these activities offer higher value-added and have greater demand in international trade. This can be achieved through the second stage of import substitution and export promotion.

Considering the unique economic circumstances in Iran, the exchange rate is a crucial determinant of the Iranian economic state. Over the past three decades, the exchange rate has exhibited significant fluctuations. Given that, previous studies investigating the impact of these fluctuations on the trade balance have primarily focused on overall sectors or international comparisons, In contrast, this study concentrates on specific sectors including agriculture, industry and mining, oil and gas, and services. The primary aim of this research is to analyze the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate on the trade balance in all four sectors, as well as the overall trade balance of Iran.To achieve this objective, this study utilizes linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag methods (ARDL and NARDL methods) to examine the short-term and long-term effects of the real exchange rate on these trade balances. The linear ARDL model is employed to explore symmetric effects, while the non-linear ARDL (NARDL) model is used to evaluate asymmetric effects.The NARDL estimation model indicates that the exchange rate is only significant in the short term and long term in the agriculture sector. This suggests that the real exchange rate has an impact on the trade balance of the agricultural sector. Additionally, the real exchange rate shows a significant non-linear relationship with almost all sectors in the short and long term. The results demonstrate a positive and significant relationship between an increase in the effective exchange rate and the trade balance in both the short and long term. Moreover, the trade balance reacts more to positive shocks in the effective exchange rate than negative shocks

Global climate change, exacerbated by the emission of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide), poses a significant threat to life, the global environment, and development. Environmental degradation is a highly debated issue in international forums and is recognized as a significant concern worldwide. Consequently, researchers and policymakers have shifted their focus from traditional economic growth to green growth. This study explores the influence of economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption, and institutional quality on green growth in Iran from 2002 to 2020. Economic policy uncertainty is measured using a composite index that incorporates currency, monetary, and financial policy uncertainty, calculated through ARCH and GARCH econometric models. Green growth is defined as economic growth adjusted for environmental considerations, based on Ahmed et al. (2022) and Sohag et al. (2022). The Quantile Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) method is employed for data analysis. Empirical findings reveal that economic policy uncertainty negatively affects green growth across all quantiles (0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95), whereas renewable energy consumption and institutional quality contribute positively to green growth. Control variables, including capital stock, employment, and degree of trade openness, are also incorporated in the analysis. Trade openness and capital positively influence green growth across all quantiles, while employment has a negative impact

Housing is crucial in addressing poverty by providing shelter and is closely interconnected with various aspects of life. This issue is outlined in goals 11 and 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals as part of global planning. To accurately identify the problem, this study measured housing poverty and its economic and social determinants in Iran during the 1390s, based on the United Nations Human Settlements Program's definition. This was achieved using two combined indices: the percentage of households lacking affordable housing and those living in unsuitable housing. Four models were estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and fully modified least squares to analyze the data.The results indicate that Tehran and Alborz provinces have the highest percentage of households with housing costs exceeding 30% of their total household costs. On the other hand, Hormozgan Sistan and Baluchistan provinces have the highest rate of households facing multiple housing deprivations. Economic variables such as income, housing prices, and lagged dependent variables were found to directly impact the percentage of households lacking affordable housing and living in unsuitable housing. Social variables, however, did not show a significant effect on housing poverty in Iran. The fully modified most miniature squares model highlighted that housing prices and income are the most influential variables affecting housing poverty in Iranian provinces in the long term

As a significant component of the global economy, the tourism industry has seen substantial growth in recent years. Iran, a country with great tourism potential, stands to benefit from this industry in terms of economic development. However, there has been a lack of focus on performance metrics in the hotel sector, which plays a crucial role in the tourism industry. This study aims to identify financial indicators that can improve hotel performance and help managers make informed decisions. Through a structural-interpretive model, this research explores the impact of various economic indicators on the hotel industry in Yazd province, Iran. Data was collected from hotel managers and experts in the field, and indicators were analyzed using the ISM technique. The results highlight the importance of economic indicators, liquidity indicators, debt indexes, risk index, efficiency index, and profitability index in determining hotel performance. It is recommended that hotel managers prioritize economic indicators to ensure overall success and consider further research to enhance financial decision-making in the industry

The imbalance in the banking system and the unhealthy flow of liquidity are unfavorable for the banking system and dangerous for the country's macroeconomics. Continuing this trend will bring about the possibility of bank bankruptcy and, as a result, heavy consequences for the macroeconomy, so controlling the imbalance of banks is significant.Various research studies have been conducted regarding the reasons for banks' disharmony, and their approach was to examine the problem statically. This is even though the effects of banks' imbalances are formed over time, and the impact of this phenomenon on other macro variables is dynamic. Therefore, in the present research, solutions were presented to solve the problem of banks' imbalances by applying the system dynamics approach.The research results showed that in the long term, weakness in internal supervision and weak corporate governance structure in banks, weakness in external supervision and Appeasement with high-risk banks, as well as government budget deficit and pressure on banks have the most significant effect on increasing banks' imbalances. Therefore, paying attention to policies such as boldly reforming the management structure, improving the conditions of corporate governance by banks, managing the budget deficit by the government, and improving the supervision of banks by the Central Bank is very helpful.

This article presents a case study to assess the impact of monetary market shocks on the consumption behavior of urban households across different age groups (elderly, middle-aged, and young cohorts). Utilizing a method developed by Deaton and Paxson (1997) and analyzing cross-sectional household budget data, a pseudo-panel dataset is constructed to examine the intergenerational consumption patterns of individuals born between 1957 and 1992. The findings highlight that the highest magnitude of monetary market shock occurred from 2011 to 2012. It is observed that young households exhibit lower consumption levels compared to other cohorts and experience greater vulnerability to both small and significant adverse shocks in the monetary market. Furthermore, a significant negative shock impacts all age groups, resulting in a convergence of consumption expenditures across cohorts; however, the young cohort experiences the most significant reduction in consumption due to its heightened vulnerability relative to other age groups

This study investigates the impact of central bank autonomy and preferences on inflation targeting within rule-based and discretionary monetary policy frameworks. Due to rational expectations, discretionary policies often lead to time inconsistency and inflationary biases. Increasing central bank independence and aligning preferences with inflation control are proposed as solutions to mitigate these biases. This study analyzes central bank preferences in rule-based and discretionary policies using a general equilibrium approach and conducts simulations. Results indicate that inflation rates are lower under rule-based policies and that increasing the central bank's conservatism and preferences reduces inflation. Additionally, econometric models show a negative relationship between central bank independence and inflation in both developed and developing countries