Reliability of Identification of Seniors at Risk Screening Tool in Predicting Functional and Mental Decline in Discharged Elderly Patients

Emergency wards today are facing with an increasing numbers of older patients. Therefore, it seems important and essential to develop a short screening tool with an acceptable predictive power to identify the seniors being discharged from hospital and mean while are at risk of a decline in physical and mental performance, and thus, facing re-admission emergency wards in hospitals.
 
This prospective study was performed on 190 randomly selected elderly people being discharged from emergency centers in Sabzevar city. Data were collected using Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR), GHQ-12 and Barthel questionnaires. Descriptive and inferential statistical methods including Pearson correlation coefficient and area under the ROC curve were used for data analysis.
 
Within the six months period of follow up,  the accuracy of ISAR tool for predicting functional and mental performance decline was at a moderate level (AUC = 0.74 , AUC = 0.77 ) but at desirable level for both physical and mental performances, as a whole condition (AUC = 0.84).

ISAR has moderate accuracy to predict the risk of physical or mental decline in elderly people six months after discharge from hospital emergency wards.