Planning and Studying the Effects of Climate Change On Iran's Agricultural Development; Application Techniques Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP)

Climate change as an unavoidable challenge affects many different natural and human aspects and requires serious planning in this regard. One of the sectors that is heavily dependent on such changes is the agricultural sector and its development. The impact of this sector and, consequently, the development of these changes means a change in production and hence the price of farmers’ products and incomes, and requires planning in this regard. In this study, using data on the production of five major crops in Iran and also data on weather and climate during the period of 1394-1379, the impact of climate change on Iranian agricultural development and its proper planning to address these changes has been addressed. Therefore, considering four different climate scenarios and using a positive mathematical programming approach, this goal has been investigated for 20 years. The results of the research show that the two scenarios of climate change and combined climate variability and climate change have the most effect on the indexes studied. According to these results, in the scenarios 1-4, the area under cultivation is 1965.8, 1416.14, 1972.9 and 1414.7 thousand hectares respectively, the average net income is 12853.6, 10842.9, 12879.1 and 10873.52 billion Toman. The average price per tonne of products will be 8.07, 9.9, 8.06 and 9.91 million Toman.Therefore, for managing climate change and reducing its negative impacts on agricultural development, suggestions such as urgent and urgent planning for water management, changes in macroeconomic management planning and changes in policy making in the agricultural economy are one of the suggestions is to adapt to climate change and manage its negative impacts on agricultural development.