The Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Hormozgan Province and Compatibility With it (Cucumber and Watermelon product)

The agricultural sector is one of the most important economic sectors due to extensive interaction with the environment, the greatest impact of climate change takes effect.  The agricultural sector affects climate change and affects climate change. Climate change, on the one hand, affects agricultural performance and, on the other hand, affects the price of products, supply, demand and welfare of consumers and producers.

The purpose of this study was to assess climate change and predict its effects on yield, cropping and production of cucurbits. The welfare effects of climate change on cucurbits, during the years (2003-2017) in the Hormozgan province were studied.

Meteorological and agricultural data were gathered in the form of Panel data for cucumber and watermelon product  during the years 2003-2017. Using predicted weather scenarios, yields, cropping levels, and harvesting products from 2025 to 2100 were predicted. Finally, consumer welfare, producer welfare and overall welfare were calculated using nonlinear programming model. During the years 2025 to 2100 to predict the welfare of partial equilibrium method was used. Excel, Eviews and GAMS software were used for this study.

In order to estimate the precise function of horticultural crop yield response to climate factors, indicators of climatic zonation region of the province into two. The results showed that cucumber product had a direct relationship with temperature and had opposite relationship with rainfall. The watermelon product has the opposite relationship with the temperature factor and is directly related to the rainfall factor. Changes in performance under the weather scenarios for the cucumber product are increasing and the watermelon product follows a decreasing trend. The overall welfare will show a decreasing trend for years to come, consumers will experience less harm than producers. Therefore, due to the different effects of climate change on  cucurbits, it was necessary to find ways to adapt to the climatic conditions in order to orient these effects. Such as changing the region's cultivation pattern, managing optimal resources and producing climate change resistant seeds.