An Analysis of the Rate of Interest and Inflation in the Banking System Based on Asymmetric Information

The existence of asymmetric information in the banking system will cause adverse selection and moral hazard. They will result inefficiency in the financial system. The inefficiency in the financial system will negatively affect the performance of the real sector of the economy. Therefore, the main aim of the present study is to investigate the impact of asymmetric information in the banking system on rate of interest and Inflation and foreign trade. Hence, based on the New-Keynesian framework, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model was adopted in accordance with the structure of the economy of Iran. The desired model includs eight sectors such as households, firms, banks, central bank, oil, the government, exports, imports, and other countries of the world. By using the Bayesian method and data gathered from Iran during 1974-2014, the parameters of equations are estimated and the impact of enhancing the asymmetric information was investigated. The results of this study indicate that increasing the asymmetric information in the banking system increases the cost of banks. Consequently, increases rate of interest. Subsequently, this increase in the rate of interest in the first two years will reduce consumption, investment, exports, imported consumer goods and inflation, but as time goes on, increasing asymmetric information and the rate of interest will increase inflation (because decline in production exceeds the decline in demand).