Two-scale participatory scenario Approach in Industry and Firm

Planning for the future of industries in uncertainty situations needs the development of a futuristic scenario. This requires knowledge, cost and time, and it is not possible for all small and large enterprises to do this. On the other hand, sometimes existing scenarios developed at different scales and approaches can be used for stakeholders in this area. The purpose of this research is to extract the relationship between industry-level scenario and firm level in shoe s industries. with the PESTEL and Porter methods, and semi-structured interviews with industry experts, 30 effective factors were identified on the industry and 11 factors were extract as important and uncertain factors.
11 factors were analyzed by Micmac tool and 2 uncertainties were selected for developing industry level scenarios, afterward 6 factors were determined to develop Iran's firm's shoes narratives with small and large firm's size. The results of the study show the way of writing different levels of scenarios as well as connecting them in order to pave the way for better decision making at macro level and micro level simultaneously in addition to better understanding of the macro environment for industry actors. The results of this experience can be a step forward for developing 2scale-scenarios.