Effective Drivers on the Sustainable Development of Rural Tourism with an Emphasis on Futures Studies (Awraman district of Sarvabad city)

Sustainable development of tourism requires a future studies approach. Given the nature of sustainability and the complexity of the open tourism system and its impact from trends, events, and changes (known as drivers), such an approach can identify, understand, and analyze the complexities and the operating drivers. This applied research with a descriptive-analytical method and a prospective exploratory approach identified the most important drivers that would affect the sustainable development of Awraman (Kurdistan, Iran) rural tourism. To identify the drivers, we used the Delphi technique and selected 38 experts. The MicMac software was used to find the relationships and their impacts and effectiveness. The results showed that the tourism system of the region would follow an unstable development. In such a situation, the aggregated drivers of economic, institutional, and environmental indicators would be more effective than social drivers. The most effective driver would be an inappropriate business environment, while a culture of self-employment and entrepreneurship would be the most influential driver in the sustainable development tourism for the region.