Information Disclosure Tone and Future Performance

One of the most important sources of information available to users is the information disclosed by companies. Managers can express their expectations of the future performance using positive and negative words in written messages, or they might consider it as a low-cost strategy for gaining personal benefit. The purpose of this research is to get a good understanding of this kind of behavior.

Disclosure tone was measured in the written messages of 1445 reports including: the first prediction of earning per share, the report of activities of board of directors, and the report of the disclosure of significant information, using specialized financial and general words and based on the three simple, balanced and unexpected approaches for 125 companies during the years 2012 to 2016. The test of research hypotheses was done using the generalized method of moments regression with dynamic mixed data and logit regression.

The results showed that there was a correlation between the use of more positive specialized words together with the proper return on assets in the current year and future performance. The higher use of this words, together with a higher use of neutral words, caused an improvement in the future return on assets. But the higher use of positive general words was correlated with a decrease in the future return on assets. The findings showed that specialized words can better explain the future performance of the company.

Specialized words are a proper tool for providing information about future performance and coordinating managers and investors’ expectations, and in comparison with general words, just by themselves or together with neutral words, have a higher predictive power of future performance.