Forecasting the seasonal variations of atmospheric factors in Karaj agroclimate ecosystem using GCM-HadCM3 model

In order to investigate the future changes of Karaj microclimate, data collection of Karaj weather station from 1995 to 2015 were applied as baseline period. Daily climate data including minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation and solar radiation by means of GCM-HadCM3 model under emission scenarios were simulated using LARS-WG software. The negative impacts of climate change induced temperatures increase up to 2°C for the period (2046-2065) under A2 and A1B scenarios and precipitations increase of approximately 13% for the period 2011-2030 under A1B scenario. The annual AI varied from 0.01 to 0.05 across the study area. The mean annual AI for the study area during the period 1995 to 2015 was measured at the rate of 0.40. Based on the linear regression, the aridity index of the given condition measured at the rate of 0.002. Thus, with the climate change trend from arid and semi-arid to arid condition in Karaj region, adaptation strategy is mandatory to improve the economical productivity of water resources to account for stability of Karaj agroclimate ecosystem.