Review and Forecast of Carbon Dioxide Gas in the Emission Sectors: The Case of Iran

Different sectors emit carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere which comprises 83 percent of the gases responsible for climate warming. In this paper we have for the first time forecast the emission of CO2 by different sectors across Iran. Sectors were recognized based on EIA guidelines. The aim was to examine trends and forecast the emission of CO2 in the country for the period 1960-2013 and by the polluting sectors over the years 1971-2010. The last three years of data of polluting sectors were used to predict patterns. Prediction of CO2 emission was conducted for each sector and the whole country for the year 2034. The highest emission was related to transport sector and the lowest to the industrial sector. Forecast show that by the year 2034, the service sector will most likely surpass the transport sector in terms of CO2 emission and using GARCH method, per capita CO2 emission will increase to 10.09 tons.