Spatial Simulation, Geomorphological Hazards and Limitations of Physical Development of Malekan City

Geomorphology, in some cases, provides a good platform for physical development of cities. However, physical development of cities, sometimes result in unsuitable and hazardous geomorphologic process and form. Therefore, geomorphology of the region is of importance in physical planning and urban development. In this study, based on historical trends of expanding the boundaries of the Malekan city (located in eastern Azerbaijan province), the pattern for future growth of the city was simulated, using Markov Chains–Cellular Automata hybrid model. Then, limitations and geomorphological hazards ahead in relation with the continuation of the current growth pattern are investigated. Most important materials used in this research include: topographic maps, geological map, GIS and RS software, ASTER, SPOT, and Landsat satellite imagery. Monitoring urban expansion from 1985 indicates that the spatial growth pattern of the city has been towards the barren lands and lagoon area in recent years. By developing past growth patterns and taking into account the transition probabilities and the neighborhood rules, development trend of the city mainly will be towards lagoon and hillslope units. Geomorphology of the study area will impose limitations and hazards to his parts. In this context, most important problems relating to the physical development of Malekan city include: lodgment of some parts of the city on the steep, dealing with hillslope landform with low strength lithology, high levels of water table in lagoon area, and flooding probability in some parts of the city.