Integration of Core and Uncertainty Bankruptcy Methods for Optimal Allocation of Gorganrod-Gharahso Basin

Over the past decade, water has become a strategic commodity, so that it has not only economic and social importance, but also has security importance; and it is predicted to become a major factor some conflicts in next years. This highlights the necessity for water resources management.

This study deals with water allocation of Gorganrod-Gharahso basin between Golestan, Semnan and North Khorasan provinces and determines the share of each agricultural, industry and environmental sectors based on data of 2015. For this purpose, two methods of Core and Uncertainty Bankruptcy Game are integrated for the first time.

The results of core method showed that the grand coalition creates the net profit equal to 24,211,790 billion rials. By applying Shapely value, it became clear that the Agricultural sector of Golestan province had the highest share (49%) of the generated gains in the top coalition. It should be noted that the Gatley method confirmed the stability of the grand coalition, after satisfying Golestan agricultural sector. In the following, the uncertainty Bankruptcy procedure was used by surveying different allocation rules in 5 scenarios. The results of Plurality index and Stability index suggest that the Sensitivity analysis of Adjusted Proportional rule can be a fair option for determining the share of stakeholders.

According to the above contents, integrating the best coalition of Core and SAP law can fairly supply the needs of stakeholder under different scenario and generate more net profit than the current situation.